At the start of every season, many people like to project how a player will perform statistically. Fans like to give their take on how a player will do in the season, but there are certain resources that use different models to project how a player will perform, based on the last season. Here, we look at how these resources project the White Sox starting lineup, in the order that I believe manager Pedro Grifol should send them out on a consistent basis.
Tim Anderson
The heart and soul of the Sox lineup, Tim looks to cement himself as a top 5 hitter in all of baseball. After four straight seasons with a .300+ batting average, he shows no signs of slowing up anytime soon. I expect Timmy to hit over .300 and compete for another batting title.
Baseball-Reference (BR) Projection: .294, 12 HRs, 41 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .298, 14 HRs, 51 RBIs.
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While I believe that the home runs and the RBIs will align closely with the ESPN projections, I believe he will easily hit over .300, and it will probably be in the .315 to .320 range. Anderson will have another great year leading off for the Sox.
Bold Prediction: Tim wins his second batting championship.
Luis Robert Jr.
Arguably the most talented player on this roster, Robert looks to stay healthy for a full season and have an MVP-caliber season. After a 2022 season that saw him finish out barely being able to swing a bat, he comes into 2023 fully healthy. With his health should come great results, as he is a true 30-30 threat.
BR Projection: .286, 15 HRs, 58 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .286, 23 HRs, 80 RBIs
Both of these are very conservative projections, but I strongly disagree with the Baseball Reference projections, as they are very low on the power and RBIs. He will be much closer to the ESPN stat line, most likely overperforming them. I like Robert to have a great season as long as he is healthy.
Bold Prediction: Luis finishes in the top 10 of MVP voting and has a 30/30 season.
Andrew Benintendi
The big splash in free agency, he looks to continue his success with the White Sox. His balance of average and power should look great in the middle of the White Sox lineup on a daily basis. Not to mention he is a true outfielder, so he will not make many mistakes in the outfield.
BR Projection: .278, 10 HRs, 57 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .274, 17 HRs, 60 RBIs
I believe that these would be great seasons for Benintendi, and it would be some of the best production we have gotten out of a corner outfielder in a long time. But, I believe with the smaller stadium Benintendi will beat his career high of 20 home runs and hit 22-25 this season. Although he only hit 5 HRs last year, I like the power to bounce back and to be a true power threat this year with a full season on the same team.
Bold Prediction: Benintendi finishes with a career-high in home runs.
Eloy Jimenez
Eloy is another player that has not been able to stay healthy. If he does, we should look for him to have his best season yet. The most powerful bat in this lineup, he should look to mash in the middle of the order on a consistent basis.
BR Projection: .276, 17 HRs, 59 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .279, 28 HRs, 89 RBIs
The BR projection is very low on his power unless they project an injury for him. ESPN has him hitting for a good amount of power, and knocking in a lot of runs. I think he can easily hit 30+ bombs this season and if he is healthy, he should break his single-season record from his rookie year. A healthy Eloy is key to a White Sox playoff run, as the outfield depth behind him is questionable.
Bold Prediction: Eloy finishes top 5 in home runs.
Andrew Vaughn
The heir to Jose Abreu, Vaughn has a big void to fill. One of the highest-rated White Sox hitting prospects in a while, Vaughn looks to improve going into his third season. I believe he can take the next step and be a true middle-of-the-order bat on a consistent basis.
BR Projection: .261, 16 HRs, 64 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .262, 19 HRs, 73 RBIs
These predictions would be great seasons for a third-year player, but I believe that Vaughn will dramatically improve once again. He took a big jump from years 1-2 as a young player, and I believe there is another big jump in store for 2023. I think he will float around .280 for his average and hit 20+ bombs. He is a true line-drive hitter, but if he starts getting some balls in the air, he could push 30 home runs.
Bold Prediction: Vaughn is the best all-around hitter in the White Sox lineup in 2023
Yoan Moncada
One of the most frustrating players in the White Sox lineup, Moncada has all of the talent in the world. We saw him put it all together in 2019, but Covid and injuries have derailed him from building on that season. If he stays healthy, I believe he can come close to that elite season. If not, Moncada may not have many more years on the team.
BR Projection: .239, 12 HRs, 51 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .240, 16 HRs, 63 RBIs
These predictions are on par with how the media has seen him play these last couple of years, but don’t be surprised if he outperforms both of them. If Moncada’s struggles are not based on injuries and he truly has regressed since 2019, then this would be the most likely stat line. His WBC performance hopefully highlights the season he will have this year. I like him to have a second breakout year.
Bold Prediction: Moncada replicates his 2019 season.
Yasmani Grandal
Perhaps one of the most important pieces if the White Sox want to compete, Grandal’s tenure with the Sox has been riddled with injuries. While that happens to older catchers, he has spoken about how he feels great this year. I look for him to have a nice bounce-back year after a great spring.
BR Projection: .222, 14 HRs, 48 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .229, 13 HRs, 41 RBIs
These predictions are in line with the production that we saw from Grandal last year, but I don’t expect that to be the case this year. I think that Grandal will come back healthy and have a season closer to the end of 2021. If healthy, he is a top-10 catcher in all of baseball, and one of the better ones with the bat. At the least, he should resume his high OBP, as he has an elite eye at the plate.
Bold Prediction: Grandal stays healthy and hits 25+ home runs
Oscar Colas
Colas is the White Sox number 2 prospect and has been officially called up to the major leagues. Dubbed the “Cuban Ohtani” he was a hot commodity on the international free agent market. He eventually would sign with the Sox and had a great year in the minors. Now officially a part of the big league team, expectations are high for him.
BR Projection: N/A
ESPN Projection: .254, 17 HRs, 56 RBIs
This would be an ideal rookie season for Colas. If he gave this type of production out of the lower third of the lineup, the White Sox would be in great shape. With Colas being a bit older and having played professionally in Japan, I think his numbers could be better than that. I think he could easily have a season where he hits .280, 20 HRs, and 75 RBIs. I believe that would be good enough to put him in the conversation for ROY and potentially win it. Regardless of what he gives us with the bat, he has the best glove of any consistent right fielder the Sox have seen in a while. Look for him to have an all-around great rookie season.
Bold Prediction: Colas wins the American Rookie of the Year
Elvis Andrus
The man who provided the White Sox with a late spark last year, Andrus was a late addition to the roster. Many people were pleased with his signing, as he solved the second base position that has plagued the Sox since they traded Madrigal. He filled in admirably for Tim last year, and he looks to fill the second base void this year.
BR Projection: .238, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs
ESPN Projection: .253, 15 HRs, 47 RBIs
Either of these will be the best season a White Sox second basemen has seen since Gordan Beckham won the Rookie of the Year. I think Andrus will hit for a higher average, most likely in the .260 range, but the home runs and the RBIs look about right for him. Above all else, he will be a great second baseman, and I have no concerns that he will be able to man second base like a true pro.
Bold Prediction: Andrus wins a gold glove at second base.