Every year, FanGraphs puts out projections on how they think that each player in Major League Baseball will do statistically. This season is no different, and as you can guess, they aren’t too high on many of the White Sox position players.
Let’s take a look at some of these projections:
Catcher
Martin Maldonado- The only player projected to have negative WAR besides Brett Phillips, they are not high on him at all. They project him to slash .193/.264/.343, which would be a very bad offensive season. They think he will add eight home runs and 24 RBIs to go along with that slash line. This would be a worse season than he had last year, as he was positive in WAR and had a slightly better slash line. He also hit 15 homers last year and had 36 RBIs. This would be a very bad season, so hopefully they are wrong.
Max Stassi- He is projected to be the best catcher on the roster according to WAR, as they think he will reach .6 WAR. Unfortunately, his slash line is not much better than the other catchers, as they project him to hit .205/.287/.349. They think he will add seven homers and 24 RBIs. Not a great offensive projection, but like the other catchers, they are high on his defense.
Korey Lee- They project him to have a below-average .212/.264/.349 slash line, only adding three home runs and 10 RBIs. This would not be a great sophomore season for him, as he would need to hit much better than that to stick around unless his defense is phenomenal.
These are all very low projections, so there is no point in playing veterans over young players if they are going to give similar outputs. This is the time to let Korey Lee show off what he can do.
Infield
Andrew Vaughn- Their projection for Vaughn is pretty similar to how he did last year. They think he will hit 26 home runs, add 81 RBIS, hit .263, and total 1.8 WAR. Statistically, they think he will be around the same as last year, as he hit 21 home runs and added 80 RBIs in 2023. They think he will be much better overall, as his WAR last year was only .9. This would be a very successful season.
Yoan Moncada- FanGraphs is very, very high on Moncada this year. They think he will have 2.3 WAR, add 18 home runs, 72 RBIs, and hit .250. This would be a fantastic season for Moncada, as they think, if healthy, he could be a big contributor to the team. I think the average will be a bit higher, but if this was the season for Moncada, I am happy.
Paul DeJong- For newcomer DeJong, they think he will hit .206, with 10 home runs, and 31 RBIs, totaling .4 WAR. This is not a great offensive output, but they are high on his defense. Hopefully, he will be used as more of a backup or utility player for the Sox in 2024, as there are younger players who could easily give those numbers in their first year.
Nicky Lopez- They think that Lopez will be alright this year. They project him to hit .248, add two home runs, 26 RBIS, and 9 stolen bases. We know what his defense is, so if he were to hit around these numbers, that would be pretty solid and likely one of the better second-base seasons in recent memory.
Braden Shewmake- They think that Shwemake will be better offensively than DeJong, as they think he will hit .225 and add three home runs and 14 RBIs in a lot less at-bats. If this is the projection, they need to give him a shot to beat out DeJong in Spring Training, as he could surprise some people.
Outfield
Luis Robert- This is the worst projection they have so far. They think that Robert will regress, as they only project him to hit .267 with 33 home runs and 97 RBIs, totaling 3.5 WAR. They also think that his defense will be worse for whatever reason. I’m not sure how he will drop 1.5 WAR instead of getting better, so this projection is way off.
Eloy Jimenez- Here, they think Eloy will bounce back, as they project him to hit .276 with 29 home runs and 88 RBIs, totaling 2 WAR. This would be an insane season for him, as last year he only totaled .3 WAR. I hope he can achieve these numbers, as he will be very valuable in the trade market if he is anywhere close to these.
Andrew Benintendi- They think Benintendi will have a nice season, this time adding much more power. They project him to hit .270 but will add 12 home runs and 56 RBIs. They must have thought his lack of power last year was a fluke, so hopefully his power numbers go up.
Gavin Sheets- They think Sheets will add 14 home runs and 40 RBIs for the Sox this year, hitting .245 to go along with that. They think he will be positive in the WAR category, as they think he will total .2 WAR as opposed to his -1.5 WAR last year. Hopefully, that is the case.
Overall, these are very interesting projections and hopefully, they are too low on most of the guys, otherwise, it could be a very long season.
