If you’ve been following the buzz around the NHL in the days leading up to tonight’s draft, you know that the Chicago Blackhawks’ move to land defenseman Bowen Byram—a trade that would normally be the talk of the league—was quickly drowned out this week by the rumor mill surrounding Dallas winger Jason Robertson. The 26-year-old superstar was approached (with permission) by the Kraken, who offered him an eight-year contract in the range of $15 million per year. It would’ve likely been some sort of sign-and-trade deal to keep Robertson from hitting restricted free agency next Wednesday.
Interestingly, the offer was declined by Robertson’s camp. Their reasoning could’ve been anything from a belief in the system to Seattle’s new millionaire tax, but at the end of the day, $120 million couldn’t get it done. Since then, according to Jeff Marek, the Blues offered multiple first-round picks to the Stars to get it done, but Robertson again didn’t want to sign in St. Louis.
So what now? On Thursday, multiple reports indicated that several teams were still inquiring about Robertson. The Blackhawks jumped off the page as a potential landing spot, according to both Pierre LeBrun and David Pagnotta.
Robertson would certainly be the huge, Marian Hossa-esque acquisition that could turn the Blackhawks into a championship contender. He logged 96 points in 82 games in a crowded Stars lineup last year and has scored 79 or more in each of his last five seasons (including 109 in 2022-23). He’s an all-around superstar playmaker with great IQ and a good shot who plays an effective 200-foot game. Sounds like a perfect fit next to Connor Bedard and Roman Kantserov for years to come, right?
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The problem for Chicago is the cost. Without this year’s fourth overall pick as a bargaining chip, the Blackhawks are left with two options: mortgage the future in a trade or pray he signs an offer sheet (and still mortgage the future).
The Stars have certainly kept their ear to the ground and saw what Chicago gave up to get Byram this week, so the asking price for Robertson will be huge. It’ll certainly start at three first-round picks next year (Chicago’s own, Florida, Edmonton). From there, they’ll have to start with multiple young, high-ceiling players. Nick Lardis or Kevin Korchinski, even combined, probably won’t quite get them there. They might have to give up Frank Nazar, which isn’t comfortable given his expectations and potential bargain of a contract. Are the Blackhawks willing to give up three or more valued prospects (no matter how you feel about guys like Korchinski), plus three first-rounders? That’s a lot of eggs into one basket, even if that basket is a superstar. Remember, they would then have to sign him. If $15 million a year isn’t getting the job done, they might have to bid even higher to get him to play for Chicago. It’s an appealing city and the rebuild is nearly complete, but Robertson might not be as on-board with the way things are shaping up as many Blackhawks fans.
The potentially more “comfortable” option for Chicago would be an offer sheet. That would cost them their next four first-round picks without protection, which the Blackhawks would be thrilled to throw Dallas’ way.
The problem, however, is that they would have to wait until Wednesday to do so, and the chances the Stars let him test the market like that are slim to none. The four first-rounders don’t really help Dallas right now, and they have every incentive to at least orchestrate a sign-and-trade in order to get something in return. Plus, Robertson would have to sign the offer, and the Stars could then match and hang on to him. It’s worth noting that offer-sheet contracts can be a maximum of seven years, and Robertson will want that eighth year.
So either way, the Blackhawks will have to fork over their entire war chest of prospects and picks to get their hands on Robertson, and that’s only if he wants to sign in Chicago. There’s no question he’s worth it right now, but is GM Kyle Davidson willing to take that big of a risk? We’ll find out in the next handful of days.
