Since July 1, 2025, the first day Connor Bedard was eligible to sign his extension with the Chicago Blackhawks, he and the team have essentially brushed off any questions about his next contract. Bedard has said repeatedly that he wants to stay in Chicago and that “a deal will get done.”
But with Bedard having wrapped up his rookie contract, the clock is ticking faster now for the two sides to get a deal done. Free agency is just over a month away on July 1, so we should see an extension come through any day now. But what will the numbers look like? It may not be as cut-and-dry as many initially thought.
The most straightforward route is the maximum eight-year deal, and that’s the most favorable one for the Blackhawks. Bedard has shown them he can do everything that was expected of him when he came into the league, notching 75 points in 69 games this year after 67 and 61 in his first two campaigns. Assuming we treat the Kirill Kaprizov 8-year, $136M deal as an anomaly and acknowledge Bedard’s potential, they would have no problem getting him for eight years around $13 million, putting him just below Leon Draisaitl and Jack Eichel but above Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid due to his long-term potential. With the 2026-27 salary cap set at $104 million and only continuing to jump, $13 million will seem like a steal in five years, much less eight. The best players always leave money on the table in long-term deals, especially when they sign them at age 20.
The problem for the Blackhawks and GM Kyle Davidson is that Bedard’s camp knows that, too. While they were able to sign Frank Nazar to a seven-year extension back in August, Davidson has much less leverage in the Bedard deal. If Bedard wants a three-year deal, someone will give him a three-year deal on the open market. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if he wanted a shorter contract—that would allow him to assess how the rebuild is shaping up, especially given his hunger to win. And it gives him more chances to get a big payday now and another one in 2029.
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Plus, while Bedard has expressed a desire to stay in Chicago, and the Blackhawks certainly aren’t letting him go anywhere, the reality is that teams can sign RFAs to offer sheets on July 1. Bedard, of course, is eligible, and the Blackhawks would be compensated four first-round picks if he signed an offer sheet and went elsewhere (which will likely never happen). Teams will jump at the chance to give up four first-rounders for Bedard and sign him to a massive three-year deal if the Blackhawks won’t. That at least puts a time limit on this deal, so Chicago better hope he’s signed within the next month.
As a result, while Blackhawks fans would love to see him become a $100 million man over eight years and lock himself in until 2034, we might be looking at a five-year bridge deal. That gives Chicago some stability for a while, but also allows Bedard to see how the rebuild turns out and continue to prove himself. That would put him along the same path as Kaprizov, who signed a 5-year, $45 million contract with the Wild at age 24. That allowed him to turn into a franchise superstar and lock up the biggest payday in league history last fall. Fans wouldn’t be thrilled to see him sign for less than eight years, but if that’s what it takes to keep him from hitting the open market, Davidson will have to bite the bullet. They’d be able to get him for less AAV with the shorter deal, but the important thing here is the term.
BEST-CASE SCENARIO: 8 years / $108M ($13.5M AAV)
LIKELY SCENARIO: 5 years / $55M ($11M AAV)
