Analytics are a regular part of the NFL these days. While not everything is a numbers game for professional sports, they help make decisions easier for the people in charge. Right now, Ryan Poles faces a tough one. The Chicago Bears’ general manager must determine if he should press his luck with Justin Fields for another year or start fresh with a new quarterback at #1 overall. Front office people, scouts, and the media think drafting a quarterback is the right decision. Current and former players and coaches believe the Bears should stick with Fields.
Everybody has differing opinions. This is often a time to let the numbers weigh in. Here is where it gets shocking. Since the merger in 1970, a total of 27 quarterbacks have gone #1 overall in the draft. The names listed below that have asterisks reached a Super Bowl. Those in bold won a Super Bowl.
- Terry Bradshaw*
- Jim Plunkett*
- Steve Bartkowski
- John Elway*
- Vinny Testaverde
- Troy Aikman*
- Jeff George
- Drew Bledsoe*
- Peyton Manning*
- Tim Couch
- Michael Vick
- David Carr
- Carson Palmer
- Eli Manning*
- Alex Smith
- JaMarcus Russell
- Matthew Stafford*
- Sam Bradford
- Cam Newton*
- Andrew Luck
- Jameis Winston
- Jared Goff*
- Baker Mayfield
- Kyler Murray
- Joe Burrow*
- Trevor Lawrence
- Bryce Young
In other words, 25.92% of the quarterbacks won a Lombardi trophy, while 40.74% made it to the big game. If somebody told you drafting a QB at #1 gave you a 1-in-4 chance to win a championship, would you take it? The answer is an obvious yes.
The Chicago Bears feel they’ve seen who Fields is.
They have to ask the tough question. Can they see him winning a championship with this team? Unless they’re able to create a perfect situation around him, that feels unlikely. There are too many issues with his game as a passer. There is no guarantee the Bears will land somebody better in the draft, but they have to play the odds. Settling for okay is not how you win championships in this league. It is about taking a big swing when the opportunities are there. Holding the #1 pick in the draft is one such moment.
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Poles has the golden ticket. The hard part is still to come. He must pick the right quarterback. Is it Caleb Williams? Drake Maye? Jayden Daniels? Plenty of respectable experts can’t find a consensus on that question. This is why the Chicago Bears GM gets paid the big bucks. He was hired for this moment. Poles has a chance to transform the fortunes of his franchise overnight. If he gets it right, the odds of this team winning a championship go up significantly. The data doesn’t lie on that.
I hear the many comments being made by Bears fans who want Caleb Williams as their number one draft pick. However, Williams is not guaranteed to be the next Partick Mahomes and if he isn’t they will be the first ones to cry for a new quarterback. I think Ryan Poles will make the right choice! Quarterbacks are the most important players on the offense but if they don’t have the talent around them, they seldom succeed. Look at Carolina with Bryce Young. If the Bears trade the #1 pick for a ton of draft choices, they may be very… Read more »
@BearDownTX The Cult of Fields is literally the most pathetically delusional thing I’ve ever witnessed. Not even Tebowtards were this cringey. Oh, and @blockwood, more like @blockhead, because ur an absolute idiot.
Just Fields must have one of the devices from Men In Black. He literally has zapped all these Fields fans with this device, because they can’t remember how terrible he looks week in and week out.
Maybe a #1 overall QB won’t win the Super Bowl. Guess what, neither will Justin Fields! Put him in the middle of a Pro Bowl roster and he will fumble away the chance.
Please Fields fans, quit staring at the light!
Trade the pick for an insane haul and trade down 2-3 times to get as many first and second round picks as you can. Add 2-3 top free agents. We can always get a top QB with our stash of draft picks, trade or free agent. It’s the prudent, long term solution and makes us a contender every year. Call me Poles.
First off, TWO of those SB winners were sent AWAY by their original team, (Plunkette & Stafford) before they won. That then makes an 80% FAIL rate for choosing a QB #1. You also ASSUME Fields is done ascending. CLEARLY you aren’t qualified if you think Fields isn’t going to improve. Fields college scouting report reads almost identical to Williams. In the last two years as starters, Field lost only 2 games,(both in the college playoffs). Williams is smaller and slower than Fields, and never took a team to the college playoffs. Why would Poles NOT know this? Poles is… Read more »