Analytics are a regular part of the NFL these days. While not everything is a numbers game for professional sports, they help make decisions easier for the people in charge. Right now, Ryan Poles faces a tough one. The Chicago Bears’ general manager must determine if he should press his luck with Justin Fields for another year or start fresh with a new quarterback at #1 overall. Front office people, scouts, and the media think drafting a quarterback is the right decision. Current and former players and coaches believe the Bears should stick with Fields.
Everybody has differing opinions. This is often a time to let the numbers weigh in. Here is where it gets shocking. Since the merger in 1970, a total of 27 quarterbacks have gone #1 overall in the draft. The names listed below that have asterisks reached a Super Bowl. Those in bold won a Super Bowl.
- Terry Bradshaw*
- Jim Plunkett*
- Steve Bartkowski
- John Elway*
- Vinny Testaverde
- Troy Aikman*
- Jeff George
- Drew Bledsoe*
- Peyton Manning*
- Tim Couch
- Michael Vick
- David Carr
- Carson Palmer
- Eli Manning*
- Alex Smith
- JaMarcus Russell
- Matthew Stafford*
- Sam Bradford
- Cam Newton*
- Andrew Luck
- Jameis Winston
- Jared Goff*
- Baker Mayfield
- Kyler Murray
- Joe Burrow*
- Trevor Lawrence
- Bryce Young
In other words, 25.92% of the quarterbacks won a Lombardi trophy, while 40.74% made it to the big game. If somebody told you drafting a QB at #1 gave you a 1-in-4 chance to win a championship, would you take it? The answer is an obvious yes.
The Chicago Bears feel they’ve seen who Fields is.
They have to ask the tough question. Can they see him winning a championship with this team? Unless they’re able to create a perfect situation around him, that feels unlikely. There are too many issues with his game as a passer. There is no guarantee the Bears will land somebody better in the draft, but they have to play the odds. Settling for okay is not how you win championships in this league. It is about taking a big swing when the opportunities are there. Holding the #1 pick in the draft is one such moment.
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Poles has the golden ticket. The hard part is still to come. He must pick the right quarterback. Is it Caleb Williams? Drake Maye? Jayden Daniels? Plenty of respectable experts can’t find a consensus on that question. This is why the Chicago Bears GM gets paid the big bucks. He was hired for this moment. Poles has a chance to transform the fortunes of his franchise overnight. If he gets it right, the odds of this team winning a championship go up significantly. The data doesn’t lie on that.
