With the Chicago Bears sitting at 3-9, it’s pretty clear their 2022 season is over. The only thing left is playing out the string. Their defense has sunk to lows not seen since 2013-2014. Now the offense is starting to get banged up too. Justin Fields isn’t healthy. Darnell Mooney is done for the year. Khalil Herbert still isn’t back from IR. It’s a mess. If that weren’t enough, their remaining schedule features three soon-to-be playoff teams and two teams that have beaten them once this year already. It’s little wonder fans have already turned their gaze to next year, specifically the 2023 NFL draft. Those conversations have lately centered around one debate. Will Anderson or Jalen Carter?
Right now, the Bears project to hold the #2 overall pick. It would be the highest they’ve selected since 2017. However, this time around, they wouldn’t be hunting for a new quarterback. Fields appears to be their man moving forward. That means they’re likely to take the best non-QB on the board. Most experts agree two names stand above the rest. Alabama edge rusher Anderson and Georgia defensive tackle Carter. Both players have strong bases of support among Bears fans. Anderson is that dynamic Von Miller-type quarterback hunter that has dominated the SEC. Carter, though, is the ideal three-technique interior pass rusher that would perfectly fit the Bears’ scheme.
The split appears even. Chicago can’t go wrong with whomever they pick, right?
Maybe, but there is a reason to believe that Carter is a considerably higher risk than Anderson in this scenario. The tape does show a player with devastating flashes. Here’s the problem. It doesn’t show up in his production. If Carter is as good as people say, it should reflect in his stat line. Except it doesn’t. In his last 24 games as a starter, the defensive tackle has five sacks and 13.5 tackles for a loss.
Here is some context. Since 2010, four defensive tackles have gone in the top five picks of the NFL draft. These are their stat lines from only their final season with their respective programs.
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Quinnen Williams (Alabama)
- 8 sacks
- 19.5 tackles for a loss
Marcell Dareus (Alabama)
- 4.5 sacks
- 11 tackles for a loss
Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska)
- 12 sacks
- 20.5 tackles for a loss
Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma)
- 6 sacks
- 15.5 tackles for a loss
All four were significantly more productive than Carter in one season than he’s been in two. It isn’t a glaring red flag, but little details like this matter when the #2 pick is involved.
Anderson is far more proven than Jalen Carter.
That is the other side of this argument. The Crimson Tide edge rusher has 10 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss in 2022 alone. Remember, he’s doing this in the SEC, the best conference in college football. It’s not like he’s feasting on second or third-rate competition. The only argument people have against him is he’s 243 lbs. That is considered light for a classic 4-3 defensive end. Then again, that doesn’t seem to bother Von Miller and Micah Parsons. Both have played in a 4-3 this season and have dominated regardless. Certain players transcend schemes. Anderson is proving he can be one of them.
Jalen Carter may end up being a great player. He has the talent. However, the Bears have to be absolutely sure they’re getting a future star with the #2 pick. When looking at him and Anderson, the question must be asked. Who is the safer bet? Most people will say Anderson, as they should. GM Ryan Poles faces a fascinating dilemma next spring, made even more so by the possibility he could trade down to stockpile picks. Bears fans are in store for an exciting off-season.
