While people are tired of Matt Nagy and want him gone, there is a contingent out there with one lingering fear. Could firing the Chicago Bears head coach have an adverse impact on the development of Justin Fields? When it comes to learning offense in the NFL, there is something to be said for continuity. Quarterbacks usually get better as they grow more familiar with a system. By firing Nagy, it would mean Fields would have to learn a brand new offense next year.
So I decided to do some research. I sought out every 1st round quarterback drafted since 2000 and pinpointed the ones that saw their head coach resign or get fired after just one season together. If the fears are true, then it would mean every quarterback listed ended up having a disappointing career, right? Not so much. While there are plenty of names who were bad quarterbacks in the NFL, there were also some great ones too. One of the most persistent features that emerged from the list?
The strength of that head coach replacement hire.
- Chad Pennington
- Al Groh to Herm Edwards
- Joey Harrington
- Marty Mornhinweg to Steve Mariucci
- Rex Grossman
- Dick Jauron to Lovie Smith
- Aaron Rodgers
- Mike Sherman to Mike McCarthy
- Matt Leinart
- Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt
- Blaine Gabbert
- Jack Del Rio to Mike Mularkey
- Brandon Weeden
- Pat Shurmur to Rob Chudzinski
- Derek Carr
- Dennis Allen to Jack Del Rio
- Jameis Winston
- Lovie Smith to Dirk Koetter
- Marcus Mariota
- Ken Whisenhunt to Mike Mularkey
- Paxton Lynch
- Gary Kubiak to Vance Joseph
- Jared Goff
- Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay
- Josh Rosen
- Steve Wilks to Kliff Kingsbury
- Sam Darnold
- Todd Bowles to Adam Gase
- Baker Mayfield
- Hue Jackson to Freddie Kitchens
- Daniel Jones
- Pat Shurmur to Joe Judge
- Justin Herbert
- Anthony Lynn to Brandon Staley
If Justin Fields is indeed good? Then he should be fine
Good quarterbacks tend to find a way to be good in the long run. Considering Nagy’s track record, it’s a safe bet he is doing more harm than good for the rookie’s development. Ironic given his background as a quarterback and quarterbacks coach. Look at Mayfield. He didn’t just survive one head coach firing. He’s already survived too. Now he’s at the helm of a team that many consider a favorite to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC.
One thing is for sure. The Bears could really help themselves if they get Nagy’s replacement right. Just look at what the Rams did for Goff. He was rough to watch in 2016. So L.A. brought in Sean McVay and he immediately turned the guy into a Pro Bowler. While the next head coach hire shouldn’t determine whether Justin Fields is a good quarterback or not, it may determine how much better he gets moving forward.
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As the list above shows, the Bears have been in this position before.
They fired Jauron after one season and replaced him with Lovie to oversee the development of Grossman. While the quarterbacks never ended up being good, the Bears did reach the Super Bowl with him. So it was a partial success. If they can repeat such an upgrade with a talent like Fields in the mix? Then the next few years should get interesting.