Everybody seems to agree that the formula for success in the NFL is pretty much set at this point. A team needs two things. A quarterback and a head coach with a strong offensive background to pair him with. See Drew Brees/Sean Payton and Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes for shining examples. This sets teams up for long-term success with playoff appearances almost every year. A place the Chicago Bears have tried to get to for literal decades now.
They thought they finally had the formula perfected in 2018. Matt Nagy arrived from Kansas City to unite with Mitch Trubisky. Together they produced a solid passing season, one of the best seen in this city in a long time. Chicago went 12-4 and won the division. Sadly, the good times didn’t last. Defenses soon adjusted and the pairing haven’t recaptured that old magic since.
Now Nagy is in danger of losing his job with people already expecting him to be gone. That brings up the inevitable question. Who replaces him? Unsurprisingly many people are pushing for another hotshot offensive coach to come in and try to succeed where he failed. However, there are multiple reasons why this could end up being a bad idea.
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Chicago Bears have 3 reasons to avoid the offensive gurus
#1 – They have no lure
Remember that hiring a head coach isn’t a one-way street. The team being interested in the coach is nice but it won’t matter unless the coach is also interested in the team. For offensive coaches, there are obvious reasons why they may or may not be interested in coaching one team or another. None more so than the presence of a quarterback.
Think over the top offensive coaches in the NFL and where they ended up landing. Matt Lafleur went to Green Bay because of Aaron Rodgers. Sean McVay had Jared Goff waiting in Los Angeles. Jon Gruden inherited Derek Carr. Even guys like Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan went to their respective teams because each held draft picks near the top of the 1st round, offering an opportunity to land a quarterback of choice.
The Chicago Bears have no such prospects. Their quarterback room is headed towards a complete reboot and currently they sit nowhere near the top 10 of the 2021 draft. Let alone the top 5. So what would be appealing to an offensive coach about that?
#2 – The competition will be fierce
Making matters worse is the fact several other teams have far better bait. The Houston Texans have Deshaun Watson. Detroit has Matthew Stafford. If the Los Angeles Chargers fire Anthony Lynn as predicted, that’ll put Justin Herbert on the market. The same could end up happening with Zac Taylor in Cincinnati, opening up Joe Burrow as well.
This is before even mentioning the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. Adam Gase is unlikely to survive after this season. The same is likely for Doug Marrone. When those two jobs open up, it could offer the #1 and #2 picks in the draft respectively. This would make Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields the prospective QBs to inherit for any coach interested.
#3 – They suck at it
This is a reality that is setting in for the Bears. Every time they’ve hired a head coach with an offensive background, it seems to not just go wrong but horribly wrong. Jim Dooley went 20-36. Abe Gibron was 11-30. Marc Trestman was 13-19. Now Matt Nagy is 13-14 after a 12-4 start with his offenses ranking 21st, 29th, and 31st respectively. Only Mike Ditka managed to have sustained success and most of that can be attributed to a once-in-a-generation defense and Walter Payton.
With other teams almost certain to scour the market for the best offensive coaches, maybe the best thing for the Chicago Bears to do is not even bother. With them focused in that direction, the defensive and special teams coaching markets will be far less picked over. That gives them a greater opportunity to find a surefire quality candidate. That may not jive with all the people hoping for a QB guru but the fact is good head coaches can develop quarterbacks. Period.
See Bill Belichick with Tom Brady, John Harbaugh with Lamar Jackson, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson, and Mike Vrabel with Ryan Tannehill. The good ones find a way.