“I’d start buying Luther Burden stock.” Those were the words Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson used at OTAs last week. For those who could read between the lines, that was a clear signal that the former 2nd round pick will be the featured wide receiver in this offense. Not D.J. Moore, who was traded, and not Rome Odunze, despite the latter being a former top 10 pick. Initial reactions to this stemmed from Johnson feeling he couldn’t trust Odunze with that responsibility because of the foot issue Odunze suffered last season. That might be a small part of it, but the real motivation is far simpler.
One thing we’ve learned about the Bears’ head coach over the past year is that he is big on specific metrics that determine the greatest offensive success. Completion percentage for the quarterback is one. Passing Expected Points Added, or EPA, is another. Both measure a quarterback’s efficiency. When it comes to wide receivers, the stat that Johnson favors in a big way is Yards After the Catch (YAC). Looking back at last season, not only was Burden the best YAC receiver on the Bears’ roster, but one of the best in the entire NFL.
Ben Johnson is merely leaning into an obvious advantage.
Think of it this way. You have two wide receivers. Both are talented. Both are good at running routes and catching the football. However, one is considerably better at making something happen after the catch than the other. Does it not make sense to get him the football more often? That is because it maximizes your offense’s scoring opportunities. You saw this happen in Detroit. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the unquestioned focal point of the team’s passing game in 2023, with 164 targets. There was one problem.
His Yards After the Catch per reception was just 5.6 yards. That isn’t anything special. So in 2024, the Lions began featuring Jameson Williams a lot more. His speed and vision in the open field made him a dangerous threat with the ball in his hands. That was reflected in his whopping 8.6 yards after the catch average. His targets went from 42 the previous year to 91 that season. The player who suffered the most from that shift was tight end Sam LaPorta, who went from 120 targets to 83. That won’t be the case in Chicago.
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There is no way Ben Johnson will sacrifice targets to Colston Loveland to elevate Burden. That means Odunze is likely to see his role diminish.
Everything about this shift is about practicality.
Johnson isn’t doing this to spite Odunze or freeze out other players. His goals remain the same as when it started. That is to find the best way to score points. It is basic mathematics. If two receivers can make a catch for ten yards, but one of them can get you six or seven extra yards, you’re doing yourself and the team a disservice by not getting the ball to them more often. The only obstacle was whether Burden could prove himself trustworthy of such a central role in the offense.
That meant improving his route-running, showing his willingness as a blocker, and putting in the work to be a team player. Burden did all of those things and has continued doing so this summer. That is why Johnson felt so comfortable praising him in public. This has nothing to do with favoritism. It is all about the numbers game. More footballs to Burden increases the odds of big plays. Big plays lead to more points. More points lead to greater win probability. Just follow the math.
