In the midst of the Chicago Bears’ 30-24 Thursday night victory over the New England Patriots, a major piece of Ben Johnson’s offensive puzzle was taken away when 27-year-old tight end Cole Kmet suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Even though Kmet hadn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet this season, his impact on Johnson’s offense goes well beyond catching passes.
Losing Kmet could force Johnson to make considerable adjustments to a system that’s become increasingly reliant on multiple tight end formations.
So, what exactly does Kmet’s absence mean for the Bears’ offense moving forward?
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Ben Johnson’s Heavy Reliance on Tight Ends
Since arriving in Chicago, Johnson has made it clear that tight ends are a major part of his offensive philosophy.
And the numbers back that up.
Through seven games, the Bears have utilized 12 personnel (two tight ends) on 33.3% of their offensive plays, compared to the NFL average of 22.5%.
Their usage of 13 personnel (three tight ends) has been even more noteworthy, jumping from 8.5% last season to 17.6% this year, nearly double the league average of 9%.
Altogether, Chicago has deployed multiple tight ends on 51% of its offensive plays this season, well above the NFL average of 31.5%.
Losing Kmet presents a significant challenge for an offense that’s become dependent on having multiple tight ends on the field.
But Have Those Formations Actually Been Effective?
Here’s where the numbers paint a surprising picture.
According to SumerSports, the Bears ranked seventh in total Expected Points Added (EPA) from 12 personnel last season and 11th from 13 personnel.
This year? Those rankings have plummeted to 28th and 29th, respectively.
And the rushing numbers are even more concerning.
Chicago is averaging -0.24 EPA per rushing attempt from both 12 and 13 personnel this season, compared to +0.16 from 11 personnel, the second-best mark in the NFL.
In fact, the Bears rank fourth in total EPA when operating out of 11 personnel.
Despite frequently relying on multiple tight ends, Chicago’s most productive grouping this season has featured just one.
Of course, those numbers don’t tell the entire story.
Heavier personnel packages are often used in short-yardage and goal-line situations, where defenses are more likely to anticipate the run.
And with Chicago running the football on approximately 66% of its plays from 13 personnel this season, it’s not difficult to see why defenses have a good idea of what’s coming.
But let’s be honest – the bigger issue has clearly been personnel availability.
Caleb Williams has missed two full games, while Kyle Monangai’s absence has coincided with a drastic decline in Chicago’s rushing production.
Through the first four weeks, the Bears led the NFL in rushing yards per game (196.3), but in their three games without Monangai, that number has dropped to 98.3, a 50% decline.
With two key pieces of Johnson’s offense missing significant time, it’s no surprise that Chicago has struggled to find the same success in heavier formations as it did last season.
What Does This Mean for Colston Loveland and Sam Roush?
Naturally, the immediate attention turns to Chicago’s two young tight ends.
Even with Kmet in the lineup, Colston Loveland has played a significant role in Johnson’s offense, logging 453 offensive snaps (85.6%) through seven games.
And while Loveland is primarily known for his receiving abilities, Johnson hasn’t shied away from using him as a blocker.
Through Week 6, Loveland led all NFL tight ends with 149 run-blocking snaps, followed by Kmet with 130, according to PFF.
Loveland has already handled significant blocking responsibilities without sacrificing his role in the passing game. But with Kmet out, Johnson will need Sam Roush to shoulder more of that workload.
All of a sudden, Chicago’s controversial decision to spend a third-round pick on another tight end is looking a lot more valuable.
The problem? Roush hasn’t exactly inspired confidence so far.
The rookie has logged just 114 offensive snaps (21.6%) through seven games, and his limited opportunities have come with some costly mistakes.
Against Minnesota, Roush missed a blocking assignment that resulted in a blocked field goal, dropped a pair of passes and committed an illegal-shift penalty that wiped out a solid gain.
Despite those struggles, Johnson remains confident in his development.
“We’ve been very pleased with the improvement he’s made over the first few weeks,” Johnson said Friday. “He had some rookie hiccups, like everybody does, but he doesn’t make the same mistake twice.”
With Kmet sidelined, Roush now has an opportunity to prove Johnson right.
But even if Roush steps up, Johnson still has another problem to solve.
If he wants to continue utilizing 13 personnel, he’s still one tight end short of his preferred three-tight-end packages. So they’ll have to find another player, or reduce their usage altogether.
And considering how frequently Chicago has relied on 13 personnel this season, neither adjustment is insignificant.
Finding the Right Balance Without Cole Kmet
While Chicago hasn’t had much success in its heavier personnel packages this season, those formations still serve an important purpose.
The Bears’ frequent use of multiple tight ends forces defenses to account for the run, potentially creating opportunities when Chicago shifts into 11 personnel.
And remember, that’s where the Bears have been at their best.
Chicago ranks fourth in total EPA from 11 personnel this season, despite using those formations on just 47% of its offensive plays, compared to the league average of 56%.
Kmet’s absence could also create more opportunities for Chicago’s wide receivers, particularly Luther Burden.
The second-year receiver has run routes on just 68.8% of Chicago’s passing plays this season and is averaging an impressive 2.56 yards per route run.
If Johnson starts using more three-receiver formations, Burden stands to benefit from the additional opportunities.
But that doesn’t mean simply running more 11 personnel will make Chicago’s offense better.
The threat of heavier formations has been an important part of Johnson’s offense. Losing Kmet certainly makes maintaining that balance much more difficult, but the answer shouldn’t be to abandon what’s been his bread and butter.
Adjustments will be necessary, but getting Monangai back in the lineup will also go a long way toward restoring the rushing attack that made those packages so effective in the first place.
Ultimately, losing Kmet goes well beyond his production on the field. Chicago is losing their longest-tenured player, a hometown kid and a respected leader in the locker room. But with Ben Johnson calling the plays and Caleb Williams under center, the Bears have every reason to believe their offense can adapt and continue to thrive without him.
