Kenny White is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker who now writes for SportsLine.com. Crunching numbers is something he knows well. So it was quite revealing to see what he had to say regarding how the Bears might look with Cutler at quarterback versus what they could be getting were they to make a deal for Garoppolo.
In a word? Not as much as they think.
“Before the 2016 season started, former Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Cutler four points better than Garoppolo. Heading into last season, Cutler was coming off his best season as a pro and Garoppolo had thrown just 31 passes in the NFL.
Now, Cutler is 33 years old and regressing, while Garoppolo gained extra experience with two solid starts. Cutler, from Vanderbilt, appeared in five games this season, tossing four touchdowns against five interceptions.
To start the 2017 season, White would have Garoppolo one point better than Cutler, or a 4 percent better chance of winning a game.
That 4 percent chance equates to between 0.5 wins and 1 win over the course of a season. Instead of 3-13 with a QB carousel, the Bears most likely would have finished 4-12 with Garoppolo.
White would set the Bears’ win total at 4 with Cutler and 4.5 with Garoppolo, who played his college ball at nearby Eastern Illinois.
According to SportsLine’s computer models, the Bears would win 6.5 games with Garoppolo under center compared to 5.3 with Cutler and have an 11 percent shot at making the playoffs.”
They say every game in an NFL season matters. That’s true to an extent, but even so isn’t the goal of the Bears to get somebody under center who can do more than manage not to lose games? A popular saying is that half the teams in the league have a quarterback and half the teams don’t. It always seems like the Bears fall into the latter category. Cutler was their latest bold attempt to change that.
They came close, but it didn’t work out. A mixture of mismanagement and misfortune got in the way. If Garoppolo were really one of those guys that could carry a team on his shoulders, wouldn’t somebody have drafted him earlier in 2014? The point is the Bears might be making the same exact mistake they made with Cutler.
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A common theme in this league is really good players don’t typically get traded. Denver got along just fine without Jay. New England rarely makes trades they regret later. Perhaps it’s time for the Bears to think about different avenues to solving this quarterback dilemma than taking in the pricey castoffs from other franchises that are better than them.
