Up until now, people haven’t quite figured out how to feel about the Chicago Bears going into 2026. They certainly made an impression last season. Thanks to a breakout year from quarterback Caleb Williams, the excellent offensive scheming of new head coach Ben Johnson, and an opportunistic defense, they won 11 games, claimed the NFC North title, and beat Green Bay in the wild card round. Unsurprisingly, Bears fans have high expectations for the team doing it again this season. Others aren’t sure.
They see a team that still hasn’t improved enough on defense, at least on paper. They can’t bank on creating that many turnovers a second time. The offense should still be good, but they did trade D.J. Moore. Replacing proven players like that isn’t always easy. Multiple experts think the Bears are in store for a dip this year, confronting the reality that while improved, they’re still not in contender shape yet. It got me thinking. Is there a team in recent NFL history that seems to parallel this type of trajectory? After doing some research, one came to mind.
The 1999 Indianapolis Colts.
Why the Chicago Bears are remarkably similar to those Colts.
Stop if you’ve heard this before. A #1 overall pick at quarterback struggles in his rookie season, losing several games. Then, in his second season, aided by a hotshot offensive mind, he puts up big numbers while leading several come-from-behind victories. Most will say that was Williams last season. Well, it was also Peyton Manning in 1999. The future Hall of Famer led six 4th quarter comebacks that year. Much of it was thanks to the excellent scheming of offensive coordinator Tom Moore and the surprise emergence of rookie running back Edgerrin James.
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It was much the same for Chicago.
Williams led six 4th quarter comebacks as well, getting major help from a rookie playmaker. In this case, it was tight end Colston Loveland. Indianapolis rode that wave to a 13-3 record, winning the division and hosting a playoff game against their division rival, the Tennessee Titans. The only major difference was that Chicago beat Green Bay in their matchup. The Colts fell 19-16. Needless to say, optimism was magnified tenfold in Indianapolis after that season. Expectations were raised. How did the Colts handle it?
Well in some ways, not well in others.
The 2000 Colts team featured another great offensive attack. Manning took another step forward in his development, throwing seven more touchdowns than the previous year. His offensive weapons, like James and Marvin Harrison, were feasting. One would think the team put together a similar record, yes? Not exactly. Indianapolis did make the playoffs again, but they finished 10-6 that year. The problem was pretty much the same as in 1999. Their defense was below-average. It finished 15th in ’99 and 21st the year after that. Once again, they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs.
A big part of the problem was that the Colts hadn’t invested well in their defensive line. In those two seasons, Chad Bratzke, a free agent signing, was the only one to have more than five sacks in a season among all of their pass rushers. What made it worse was the team’s stubborn refusal to address the problem in the draft. None of their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round picks in 2000 or 2001 were edge rushers. Sure enough, the defense bottomed out in ’01, finishing 29th.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because the Bears have been following the same playbook.
| Year | Team | Round | Pick | Player | Position | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Colts | 1 | 4 | Edgerrin James | RB | Miami |
| 1999 | Colts | 2 | 36 | Mike Peterson | LB | Florida |
| 1999 | Colts | 3 | 63 | Brandon Burlsworth | G | Arkansas |
| 2000 | Colts | 1 | 28 | Rob Morris | ILB | Brigham Young |
| 2000 | Colts | 2 | 59 | Marcus Washington | LB | Auburn |
| 2000 | Colts | 3 | 91 | David Macklin | DB | Penn State |
| 2025 | Bears | 1 | 10 | Colston Loveland | TE | Michigan |
| 2025 | Bears | 2 | 39 | Luther Burden III | WR | Missouri |
| 2025 | Bears | 2 | 56 | Ozzy Trapilo | OT | Boston College |
| 2025 | Bears | 2 | 62 | Shemar Turner | DT | Texas A&M |
| 2026 | Bears | 1 | 25 | Dillon Thieneman | S | Oregon |
| 2026 | Bears | 2 | 57 | Logan Jones | C | Iowa |
| 2026 | Bears | 3 | 69 | Sam Roush | TE | Stanford |
| 2026 | Bears | 3 | 89 | Zavion Thomas | WR | LSU |
The Colts didn’t finally get over the hump until 2003.
They bottomed out in 2001 at 6-10, forcing a coaching change. They rebounded to make the playoffs in 2002, thanks in large part to 1st round edge rusher Dwight Freeney. At last, they reached the AFC Championship in 2003. This could be the timeline the Bears are looking at, unless they somehow find some unexpected good fortune on the pass rusher front. Their offense should remain high quality moving forward, which will keep them in plenty of games and probably help them make the playoffs a couple of times.
Yet until they get their defense up to the same level, they will not compete for a championship. That is what happened to the Colts. Indy fans probably still lament those first few seasons with Manning and how different they might’ve been had the defense been better. They could’ve potentially stolen a Super Bowl before the rise of Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Williams and Johnson have both said the objective is to win and win now. There is no reason to doubt them. However, they can’t do it alone. Manning proved that. The Chicago Bears have to get serious about the defense by next offseason. If they don’t, they could end up plateauing like those Colts teams did.
