Ryan Pace is, shall we say, a divisive figure these days. Chicago Bears fans are split on the GM. Many believe it’s long overdue for him to be fired. He’s made too many high-profile mistakes to constantly be given second chances. On the other hand, others feel his uncannily sharp eye for finding quality talent in unexpected places makes him worth keeping around.
What makes it so interesting is that both sides aren’t wrong. Pace does have a few too many notable misses in the NFL draft on his resume. None bigger than quarterback Mitch Trubisky, whom the GM traded up to get over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Plenty of people feel that blunder alone is enough for him to get canned. Some GMs have been fired for less.
All of that being said, is there a strong enough argument to keep him? Forget the recent win streak the Bears are on. Pace has no direct control over that. Evaluating him must center on the roster itself. Has he shown any signs of improvement? The primary argument against him is the big misses high in the draft. So let’s look at his first three years in the 1st-3rd rounds followed by his next three years. Is there a notable difference in quality?
High picks (2015-2017)
- Kevin White
- Eddie Goldman
- Hroniss Grasu
- Leonard Floyd
- Cody Whitehair
- Jonathan Bullard
- Mitch Trubisky
- Adam Shaheen
High picks (2018-2020)
- Roquan Smith
- James Daniels
- Anthony Miller
- David Montgomery
- Cole Kmet
- Jaylon Johnson
One thing that stands out from the first list is just how many outright misses Ryan Pace had. White, Grasu, and Shaheen were clear busts. Bullard was nothing more than a backup defensive lineman. Floyd had nice flashes but nobody would say he lived up to being the 9th overall pick. Only Goldman and Whitehair could be called legitimate frontline starters.
Subscribe to the BFR podcast and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
By contrast, it appears the second list is significantly more consistent in terms of quality. Smith was snubbed of a Pro Bowl invitation this year. He’s becoming a star. Daniels was playing at a high level as well before an unfortunate pectoral injury ended his season. Montgomery has topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage for the second-straight season. Kmet is already a top-notch blocker and Johnson is the highest-rated rookie corner in the NFL.
Ryan Pace seems to have learned some valuable lessons
It’s apparent from those charts that the GM has become less reckless with his higher picks. He isn’t taking huge risks on “potential” anymore. He’s opting for more proven talents. Smith? Daniels? Montgomery? Johnson? All of them were established, productive players at noteworthy universities like Georgia, Iowa, and Utah. No more home run swings on guys with one year of experience or coming from colleges like Ashland.
He’s been much more calculated in who he spends his higher picks on and without sacrificing his ability to find late-round gems. Bilal Nichols and Darnell Mooney have really stood out down the stretch as such examples. Also, don’t forget Sam Mustipher and Alex Bars, two undrafted free agents Pace signed last year who have become catalysts to a major turnaround on the offensive line. If people are going to shower praise on those young men, a portion of it must be directed to the guy who brought them in.
Imma say it again, the Bears found something in Darnell Mooney pic.twitter.com/siSbtAqc6Z
— Football Nerds (@FootballNerds_) December 20, 2020
All of this will go into the end-of-season evaluation on him.
Plenty of people won’t like the idea. They have valid reasons for this. Pace took three noteworthy shots at the quarterback position and whiffed all three times. What has he done to deserve another chance? At the same time, it’s easy to forget he was the youngest GM in the NFL when he took the job. Sometimes a person needs on-the-job experience in order to correct faulty philosophies.
It could be that is what has happened for Ryan Pace. People think the Bears avoiding a losing record or making the playoffs will convince ownership he should stay. That isn’t true. His best argument will be the steady improvements he’s made at finding talent in the draft.