Talk around the Chicago Bears for their first playoff game in eight years is centered around one thing. That defense. No surprise. It’s the #1 unit in the NFL and most believe if this team is going to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of them. Not only that, but the predictions from most prominent experts are they’ve had to do it “in spite” of quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
He’s the weak link and he’s going to hold this entire team back along the way. This despite evidence that it isn’t entirely the case. Several times in 2018 Trubisky was the reason they won games. Not to mention the reason they were in games at all. Sure he’s picked bad times to have off games, most of them in primetime.
Still, this doesn’t mean he’s choked every single time he’s been in a difficult spot. Quite the contrary. Now the Philadelphia Eagles are coming in and these same people are convinced he’ll struggle. This despite evidence that this won’t necessarily be the case. So it’s time to dig into the numbers. Given the state of that Eagles defense, will they smother Trubisky as is being widely predicted?
Mitch Trubisky is consistently excellent against bad pass defenses
The consistency with which most of the mainstream media are doubting Trubisky going into this game is surprising. Sure he hasn’t put up electric numbers, but he’s put together three-straight quality games in December. Two of them against division opponents battling for their playoff lives.
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Now here come the Eagles. Sure they’re the defending champions but nobody can call their pass defense intimidating as of late. This raises an interesting question. How has Trubisky performed against bad pass defenses in his career? Here are the numbers.
Comp Att Comp % Yards TDs INTs
19 26 73.08 354 6 0
16 29 55.17 220 2 0
4 7 57.14 107 0 0
18 30 60 179 1 0
31 46 67.39 314 1 3
12 15 80 102 1 0
21 35 60 297 1 0
Trubisky has played at bottom 10 pass defense seven times in his career to date. He’s completed 64.68% of his passes for 1,573 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three interceptions. That’s good for a 105.21 passer rating. The worst of those games, the only one of the seven where he threw interceptions, came on the road in Detroit. He was a rookie and playing in his first ever road divisional game.
All other six games were at home, in which he threw 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. Now here comes the Eagles and their 30th ranked pass defense. A unit that allowed Dak Prescott to throw for over 700 yards and four touchdowns in two games this year. A unit that was the only one to let Marcus Mariota throw for over 300 yards this year.
Yes, they have a strong defensive line but too many times this season it hasn’t mattered. Suffice to say if they can’t get to Trubisky on Sunday, the numbers offer a clear indicator that he’s set to go off.
