The Chicago Bears caught the NFL by surprise last season, going 11-6 and winning the NFC North title for the first time in seven years. It was done through a mix of great offense, opportunistic defense, and some incredible late-game magic from quarterback Caleb Williams. While the final result, a loss in the divisional round to the Rams, wasn’t what they wanted, it felt like a signal that the team is trending in the right direction. Head coach Ben Johnson refused to buy into that, stating that 2026 would be a start back at zero.
Expectations for the Bears are all over the map. Some believe they will defend their crown and repeat as division champions. Others see them as a clear regression candidate, unable to duplicate what they accomplished last year because of the amount of luck involved. Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated did a full prediction for the entire coming season around the NFL. He believes the Bears will once again produce a winning record. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to get them back into the playoffs this time.
3. Chicago Bears (10–7)
I suppose, “the Bears will miss the playoffs” is the headline from this blurb, even though Chicago will have won double-digit games for the second consecutive season and will have posted a statement victory over the defending Super Bowl champions. I don’t think a 10-win season necessitates a What’s wrong? or What happened? style blurb. According to the FTN Almanac, the Bears have one of the worst projected defensive DVOAs in the NFL. This is a split that, if it turns out to be accurate, would have the Bears looking a bit like a less hilarious version of the 2025 Cowboys. Chicago was a lower-rung unit last season and, despite some flirtation with Maxx Crosby, did most of its heavy lifting in reshaping the team’s defensive backfield. Hence, I have a few “slip up” games for the Bears against teams with some elite playmakers, like Bijan Robinson in Atlanta and two losses to Ben Johnson’s former team, the Lions. Again, I don’t think slightly punishing the Bears, a team whose offensive excellence and the stunning health of its offensive line overshadowed holes on defense and distracted us from the fact that the team ranked fairly high in a ranking of clubs that benefitted from “luck”-adjusted plays, is controversial. An MVP-caliber campaign from Caleb Williams, plus a crusade against Ryan Poles to improve the defense next offseason, feels like a very comfortable and safe landing spot.
The Chicago Bears face two key issues.
First, they remain stuck in a loaded division. Green Bay made the playoffs as well last season and is always a threat. Detroit swept the Bears in the season series and finished 9-8. Minnesota underperformed but seems to have improved at quarterback with the arrival of Kyler Murray. Navigating those six games will be a major challenge. Part of that is because of the second issue. The Bears’ defense hasn’t really improved enough, at least on paper. Their two takeaways leaders, Kevin Byard and Nahshon Wright, left in free agency. Tremaine Edmunds was also cut. They did bring in proven starters Coby Bryant and Devin Bush, but Bryant is already dealing with a knee injury.
The primary concern is the overall lack of improvement up front. It is the exact same group from last season, aside from some minor additions like Neville Gallimore and Jordan Van Den Berg. The defensive line finished among the league’s worst in total sacks and was also poor against the run. Is there any reason to believe they can take a step forward? The Chicago Bears brass seem to believe they can. Fans are skeptical. If the defense remains below-average and can’t maintain its turnover pace, it will be much harder to win games.
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There is some good news.
Historically, if you can produce a top 10 offense, your odds remain pretty good for making the playoffs. Seven of the teams that finished in that area last season did so, including the Bears. Also, 10 of the top 15. The point is, if Chicago can pick up where they left off last year offensively, they should remain at least in the hunt. Usually, 10 wins should be enough to get you into the playoffs. Over the past two years, six teams have finished with a 10-7 record. Only one didn’t reach the postseason.
There is no doubt that the projected result from Orr would sting. The last time the Bears produced back-to-back winning seasons was 2005 and 2006. They made the playoffs both years. Seeing a productive season go to waste with no chance of competing for the Super Bowl is like eating a cupcake without frosting. What was the point? Here is hoping such an effort doesn’t prove so flavorless. Given how Ben Johnson operates, he won’t find that outcome acceptable.
