The Chicago Bears draft outlook for 2019 looks, well, boring is the best word to describe it. Thanks to a pair of big trades last season for Khalil Mack and Anthony Miller, they find themselves without 1st or 2nd round selections. Combine that with their successful 12-4 season with a playoff appearance, and they don’t pick until the 87th selection of the 3rd round. Not only that but GM Ryan Pace will have just five picks total.
So this would seem to indicate there aren’t a lot of options in front of them. Pace will have to do something he’s not accustomed to. That is sit back and just do the best he can with the picks he has.
Right?
Here’s the thing to remember. Pace doesn’t operate by what people perceive as normal draft procedures. He has proven time and again that he is an aggressive thinker who is going to take every opportunity to get difference makers in the draft. He traded up for Leonard Floyd. He traded up for Mitch Trubisky. Hell, he came up all the way from the 4th round back into the 2nd to get Miller.
Subscribe to the BFR Youtube channel and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
If he sees a player he wants, he’ll do what he can to go get him. There are reasons to think that he’ll feel that sense of urgency to do it again this April too.
Ryan Pace is operating against the clock with Mitch Trubisky contract
Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune brought up a key point that people must remember. The Bears are following the blueprint set by the Los Angeles Rams. They’ve been hyper-aggressive in their efforts to build their roster the past two offseasons. Why? Namely, because they have the advantage of a young Pro Bowl QB in Jared Goff still playing on his rookie contract. The Bears are in a similar situation with Mitch Trubisky.
“If the Rams again prove to be a model for the Bears, even if it’s just somewhat close, buckle up and prepare for a thrill ride this offseason. Will Pace follow the franchise’s most aggressive foray into free agency from 2018 — which doesn’t account for the biggest move of all in the Mack trade — with another aggressive spring? His history in four years suggests it can’t be ruled out.”
As of now, Trubisky has two years left on his rookie contract. Presuming they use the 5th year option, that makes for three in which it will be relatively affordable. This means 2022 will be the year where he likely starts making top quarterback money. Depending on how well he plays that could rise up to well beyond $30 million per year.
It’s worth noting that none of the current 15 highest-paid QBs in the NFL have won a championship since getting their new deals. It is hard to build a champion when over 17% of your total cap space is devoted to one player. This is why Pace could stay on the offensive.
The question is what would it cost to actually move up?
One has to assume the Bears would aim for the lowest 1st round pick possible in this sort of scenario. Using draft trade value charts, their 87th pick is worth 155 points. The 32nd pick, which will be held by the Patriots or Rams by next week, is worth 590. That is a difference of 455 value points. That is the equivalent of a mid-2nd round pick.
Courtesy of the Mack trade, the Bears now have two picks in the 2nd round in 2020. Pace could offer up one of them (most likely the Raiders one) in the deal. This is exactly what he did in the trade for Miller (with the Patriots) to jump from the 4th to the 2nd. So it’s definitely a move that the GM has already executed successfully before.
Whether the team he offers it to is willing to accept that as compensation is the big question mark. One thing is for sure though. Don’t put it past Pace to not try. After all, it’s not like he hasn’t been part of a one pick draft before. In 2009, the New Orleans Saints only made four picks. One in the 1st round and the rest in the 4th and 5th rounds.
That one player they picked? Three-time Pro Bowl safety Malcolm Jenkins. New Orleans won the Super Bowl that season.
