The Chicago Bears look like a team that is clearly in a rebuilding phase. Though they sit at 2-2 and are still very much in the NFC playoff picture, both of their losses showcased how flawed the roster is. They can’t throw the ball on offense, and they can’t stop the run on defense. That is often a nasty combination. Head coach Matt Eberflus remains determined to get those problems figured out. Sadly he may not have the talent necessary to do so.
That would explain why many expect the Bears to finish with one of the worst records in the league. How bad it gets remains to be seen. ESPN decided to take a stab at it. They did so with their Football Power Index. Unsurprisingly, the winless Houston Texans are the favorites to end up with the #1 overall pick. What about the Bears?
“Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations…
4. Chicago Bears (2-2)
Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 43.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.4%”
That isn’t overly difficult to believe. Chicago would’ve held the 7th overall pick this year if not for the Justin Fields trade. Losing a few more games to get the 4th overall is easy to envision after the housecleaning Poles did.
The Chicago Bears have great fortune with the 4th pick.
They’ve used it a total of six times, dating back to 1946. The players added were Johnny Lujack, Gale Sayers, Waymond Bryant, Walter Payton, Dan Hampton, and Cedric Benson. Four of those first five names went to the Pro Bowl. Three ended up in the Hall of Fame. Bryant was a good player in the mid-1970s before injuries shortened his career. Benson was a bust in Chicago. Recent 4th overall picks included Kyle Pitts, Denzel Ward, Amari Cooper, and Lane Johnson.
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In other words, the Chicago Bears would have a chance to land a legitimate blue-chip talent if they pick that high. There is also the possibility Ryan Poles could trade down to secure more picks. That has happened four times dating back to 2003. In most cases, it always secured an extra 1st round pick for the team moving down. Four teams have two 1st round picks going into next April. Something to keep in mind if ESPN is proven correct.
