Most of the attention lately has been paid to the most recent group of rookies, and for good reason. However, the Chicago Bears 2017 draft class might be the one that is truly special. Part of it is simply because of its impact already. You have one guy who looks like a franchise quarterback in the making. Another guy who could be Defensive Player of the Year. Then there’s one of the most fear offensive weapons in football.
That in itself makes the class unique. Yet people aren’t quite grasping the full depth of this entire situation. Getting three potentially great players in a draft class in something rare. So what happens when a GM in Ryan Pace manages to do it with only five picks at his disposal? People tend to forget that’s what happened.
The Bears gave up their 3rd round pick to grab Mitch Trubisky at #2 overall. Then they passed their 6th rounder to Los Angeles in order to go up and grab Eddie Jackson. Just those two in a space of five rounds would’ve been great. Add Tarik Cohen to the mix and it becomes incredible.
How incredible? Here is a breakdown of the numbers.
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Draft history from 1970 to 2014 (before Ryan Pace)
- 44 years
- 507 picks
- 41 Pro Bowlers
- 164 started at least 20 games
Doing the math, that averages out to 11.52 picks made per year. With 41 Pro Bowlers out of 507 picks total, that’s a hit rate of 8.08% while starters eclipsing 20 games overall is 32.34%. One could probably say this is around the league average for the most part given they’ve made two Super Bowls and won one of them over that span. So here’s how that average is tossed on its head by what Pace did last year.
2017 class
- 5 picks
- 2 likely to make Pro Bowl this year
- 2 have already started 20 games
Tarik Cohen is one of the leading vote-getters for the Pro Bowl this year as a return man. No doubt his excellent work on offense is fueling that case too. Eddie Jackson just delivered his third defensive touchdown of the season and is now considered one of the best young safeties in the NFL. Barring something unforeseen both should get a trip down to Orlando this year. Jackson has already started over 20 games too, as has Mitch Trubisky.
Think about that. The Bears usually get 3-4 such players every 11-12 picks they use. Pace managed to do it with five. That’s a staggering 40% hit rate on Pro Bowlers, a 40% hit rate on long-term starters and a 60% hit rate on productive players overall. That just doesn’t happen, and yet Pace pulled it off. Sometimes a team needs a stroke of good fortune to get them pointed in the right direction.
Don’t be surprised if people look back at the 2017 draft class as the unique turning point.
