Expectations for Justin Fields will be high in 2023. They should be. It’s his third year in the NFL and the Chicago Bears spent the entire off-season upgrading his supporting cast. D.J. Moore arrived via trade from Carolina, giving them a legitimate #1 wide receiver. They also retooled the offensive line, signing Nate Davis in free agency and then drafting Darnell Wright in the 1st round. If these pieces play up to the level expected of them, life will be much easy for Fields.
Yet there is one factor in this equation that not nearly enough people are talking about. It’s the fact Fields is entering his second season under Luke Getsy. History tends to show quarterbacks improved from their first year in an offensive system to the second. However, that is especially true in this offense. Go back and look at quarterbacks that played in the wide-zone scheme under gurus like Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay. People will be shocked by the consistency of improvement from year one to year two.
History says Justin Fields is poised for a big step forward.
Jake Plummer
- 2003 – 2,182 yards, 15 TDs, 7 INTs
- 2004 – 4,089 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs
Matt Schaub
- 2008 – 3,043 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs
- 2009 – 4,770 yards, 29 TDs, 15 INTs
Matt Ryan
- 2015 – 4,591 yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs
- 2016 – 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs
Jimmy Garoppolo
- 2017-2018 (9 games) – 2,278 yards, 12 TDs, 8 INTs
- 2019 – 3,978 yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs
Kirk Cousins
- 2013-2014 (11 games) – 2,564 yards, 14 TDs, 16 INTs
- 2015 – 4,166 yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs
Aaron Rodgers
- 2019 – 4,002 yards, 26 TDs, 4 INTs
- 2020 – 4,299 yards, 48 TDs, 5 INTs
Nearly every quarterback listed above saw their passing yardage per game take a significant spike from year one to year two. The average works out to 30.38 yards per game. Justin Fields averaged 149.5 yards per game last year. So based on that average, he will go for 179.88 yards per game in 2023. Branched out across 17 games, he will throw for 3,057 yards this season. As for touchdowns, quarterbacks saw an average .626 per game increase. If Fields holds to that average, he will throw ten more TDs in 2023 than last season. That means 27 overall.
Even if you cut down his rushing totals from last season by half (571 yards, 4 TDs), that still works out to 3,628 total yards and 31 touchdowns. This is a conservative estimate. It would be a significant improvement from the Bears quarterback. Presuming the defense takes even a modest step forward this season, it is reasonable to believe this version of Fields would get them to the playoffs.
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