Everybody thinks they know how the NFL draft will unfold in April. GM Ryan Poles will trade Justin Fields and use the #1 overall pick on a quarterback of his choice. The overwhelming majority think it will be Caleb Williams. That isn’t surprising. He’s been the presumptive top pick of this draft for two years. Many compare him to Patrick Mahomes, who Poles helped draft in 2017 with the Kansas City Chiefs. It feels like a no-brainer. Yet fans must remember this GM doesn’t always operate according to conventional rules.
There is a possibility he has an alternative plan he hopes to execute. This is where draft conspiracy theories always come into play. Follow enough bread crumbs and maybe it leads you to the truth. So here is one that has stuck with me. Two months ago, top Bears insider Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune released his first in-depth QB study for the draft. One would think it’d be about Williams or Drake Maye. Nope. It was about Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. That led me to wonder if Biggs was hearing something at the time, but I dismissed it. However, after some thinking, I realized there is a path forward that feels like such a Poles move. It is as follows.
- #1 – Keep Justin Fields for the 2024 season
- #2 – Trade down from the 1st pick for a blockbuster package
- #3 – Select McCarthy later in the 1st round
The for Ryan Poles here is straightforward.
It allows Poles to hedge his bets. Fields will get another year to start, this time under what is supposed to be a better offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron. If he improves and the Bears defense continues to play well, the team should challenge for a playoff spot. Trading down will yield significant future draft capital. Depending on how far they move down, they should still be able to land a blue-chip talent such as a wide receiver or offensive tackle.
So why McCarthy? For one, he’s a winner. He helped Michigan win its first national title since 1997. He moves well, has great mental toughness, is a standout leader, and throws accurately. His arm strength is also underrated. The critical issue many have with him is his lack of experience. McCarthy is 21 years old and has only thrown 713 passes in his college career. He was rarely asked to carry the team with his arm. It’s why many think he will need a year to transition to the NFL before being ready to start.
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Last but not least, we know Ryan Poles loves hometown talent. It’s why he re-signed Cole Kmet and signed guys like Jack Sanborn and T.J. Edwards. The GM believes that sort of thing matters to players. McCarthy was born in La Grange Park, just 20 minutes outside Chicago.
Don’t forget Poles watched the Chiefs use this setup before. They stuck with Alex Smith in 2017 despite drafting Mahomes in the 1st round. He played well, they made the playoffs, and then they traded him to Washington. He could envision a similar approach to McCarthy. The kid has attributes the Bears have discussed: poise, accuracy, swagger, decision-making, and leadership. It comes down to whether they can be patient in transitioning him to the NFL.
