It was so close. One more completion would’ve put the Chicago Bears in field goal range and probably sent them to the NFC Championship. Despite the disappointing finish to that divisional game against the Rams, many felt it was the opening of an opportunity for the organization. They finally have a quarterback and head coach combination that feels legitimate. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson worked magic together. The next obvious step is fortifying the roster around them and going for it all in 2026.
Right?
You wouldn’t have guessed from how they approached the start of the offseason. D.J. Moore was traded. Tremaine Edmunds was cut. Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nahshon Wright, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson were all allowed to leave in free agency. A huge swath of the roster that had led them to the playoffs was gone. Though the Bears did add safety Coby Bryant and linebacker Devin Bush in free agency, the feeling is the team didn’t take advantage of an opportunity to be more aggressive. Did they screw up?
Not according to Bill Barnwell of ESPN. In surveying 500 free agents between 2013 and 2022, he reached a stunning conclusion about free agency in general.
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How often do top free agents actually pan out? Not as often as teams would like. The average grade for these 500 free agents landed at 2.26 — closer to disappointing than average. Most players were either below average or lived up to expectations, but there were far more utter disasters than stunning breakouts, which makes sense; if a player’s already being paid market value or better to start, it’s going to be easier for them to come up short via injury or inconsistency than exceed expectations to play at a Pro Bowl-or-better level.
The Chicago Bears have finally learned a vital lesson.
Free agency is a scam. Yes, there are instances when signings exceed expectations, but it’s like hitting the jackpot on a slot machine. It doesn’t happen often enough to justify constantly throwing coins into it. Yet that is what the Bears have done for the past couple of decades. Their history is littered with some ugly contracts they handed out to players who, in hindsight, had no business receiving them.
| Player | Pos. | Year | Contract Details | Why it Failed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Smith | CB | 2000 | 5 years, $22.5M | Recorded zero interceptions; released after only 16 games. |
| Kordell Stewart | QB | 2003 | 2 years, $5M | Finished with a 2-5 record and more interceptions (12) than TDs (7). |
| Orlando Pace | OT | 2009 | 3 years, $15M | Hall of Famer was past his prime; benched after 11 games due to performance and injury. |
| Frank Omiyale | OT | 2009 | 4 years, $14M | Notorious for poor pass protection and penalties; released in 2011. |
| Mike Glennon | QB | 2017 | 3 years, $45M | Started only 4 games with 8 turnovers before being replaced by a rookie. |
| Cody Parkey | K | 2018 | 4 years, $15M | Missed 10 total kicks in one season, including the infamous “Double Doink.” |
| Trey Burton | TE | 2018 | 4 years, $32M | Production plummeted after 2018; struggled with injuries and availability. |
| Nate Davis | G | 2023 | 3 years, $30M | Faced criticism for a lack of practice and performance; released mid-season in 2024. |
This is why teams that spend regularly in free agency often don’t experience sustained success. It is because the money they’re paying these players is almost always too much to justify the return they get. Smart teams only spend occasionally and focus more on drafting and developing their talent. The Chicago Bears used to be good at this approach, but seemed to lose their way at some point. To his credit, general manager Ryan Poles has worked hard to avoid big spending. This year just felt like the most blatant attempt yet.
The Bears are betting on themselves.
That is to say, they’re putting the responsibility on the scouting department to evaluate good draft prospects and then betting on the coaching staff to develop them properly. The last time it felt like things were aligned on this was probably the mid-2000s, with Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo. Yet even they eventually bowed to the free agency monster. Poles and Johnson seem to share the same philosophy. They’re not interested in a quick burst of success. They want to win consistently.
History says that is only possible by constantly feeding your roster with a steady stream of young talent. The Chicago Bears have finally been doing that for the past few years. There was a period between 2019 and 2022 when they used only one 1st-round pick due to the Khalil Mack and Justin Fields trades. Now they have Darnell Wright, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland forming a promising foundation for this team. The next step will arrive on April 23rd.
