People are still having trouble processing the Chicago Bears Khalil Mack trade. Fans have to pinch themselves, wondering if it’s real. Did the Bears actually just secure one of the two best edge rushers in football? It’s two days later and he conducted his first press conference with the team. So it is definitely real and the implications are staggering.
The Bears defense last season was 10th in the NFL overall. This was due to a variety of factors from improved secondary play to Vic Fangio’s ability to manufacture a decent pass rush. Concerns became apparent though when the team parted with a number of veterans this offseason. Men who played a big role in helping the rush succeed.
Those who were released included Pernell McPhee and Willie while Lamarr Houston and Mitch Unrein were allowed to leave via free agency. According to Pro Football Focus, those four men combined for 12 sacks and 50 total pressures on the quarterback. Sounds like a lot right? That is until it’s revealed that Mack had 10.5 sacks and 79 pressures by himself in 2017. The year before it was 11 and 98 respectively.
That is the extent of the talent the Bears just acquired. NFL insider Peter King of Pro Football Talk went into even further detail about how much of a steal this team got.
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Bears Khalil Mack trade considered brilliant move by Ryan Pace
King, like many others, was stunned when the news of the Mack trade dropped. They couldn’t remember the last time a team gave up a potential Hall of Fame player in his prime at one of the premier positions in the sport. When details emerged about what it cost Chicago to get him, that stance only hardened.
Tell ‘em, Joe. https://t.co/ydUfdEixmg
— Peter King (@peter_king) September 1, 2018
In his latest column, he called the trade a “brilliant” move by Bears GM Ryan Pace and a bad misjudgment by the Oakland Raiders. Pace demonstrated an understanding of the reality that successful defense in this modern NFL can’t be done without consistently pressuring the quarterback. Mack is one of the few on the planet capable of doing this by himself. So why was it such a steal for Chicago?
Namely, because the two biggest fears about it are way overblown.
The money
Everybody knew the situation. Regardless of where Mack ended up, he was going to get paid a massive contract extension. That’s why he was holding out in the first place. It was going to be a record-breaking deal and he felt he’d earned it. The Raiders weren’t willing to go there. The Bears were, handing him a six-year extension worth $141 million upon arrival. King explained why it’s too easy to get lost in those numbers
“If I told you that you could draft and develop one of the three best defensive players in football (and maybe the best), and then sign him to a contract that would take him all the way through his prime for an average of 10.7 percent of your salary cap annually, would you do it?
I bet the vast majority of the teams in the league would be happy to do so. If they knew anything about football they would.”
It was estimated that team salary caps over the next seven years (the length of Mack’s deal) would be around $207.2 million. The edge rusher will be making an average of $22.12 million per year during that span. That’s 10.67% of the Bears salary cap. Considering it’s for a guy who’s a virtual lock for 10 or more sacks a year? It’s a fair price to pay.
The draft picks
Then, of course, there’s the compensation for the Raiders. This was a package of four draft picks including the Bears’ 1st round choices in 2019 and 2020, along with their 3rd round choice in 2020. A 6th rounder was also included as a chaser. Is that a lot? Yes. Are the Bears crippled by giving it up? Not by a long shot.
People have a tendency to overvalue draft picks these days. It’s understandable. Great teams are built primarily through the draft. That much is true. However, teams miss on these picks a lot. Chicago doesn’t have the best track record with them in recent years. So giving up a few for a superstar makes some sense.
Then there’s the matter of what came back with Mack in the deal.
“The Bears now have no picks in the first two rounds in 2019, and none in first and third rounds of 2020. But they were able to squeeze a 2020 second-rounder back from Oakland. So their earliest picks in the next two drafts are a third next year and two second-rounders in 2020. Imagine if the Raiders struggle in ’19, and the Bears have a pick near the top of the second round in ’20. That wouldn’t cancel out the Bears’ first-rounder in 2020, but it would ease the pain.”
The Bears have had a strong track record in the 2nd round under Ryan Pace, adding two quality starters in Eddie Goldman and Cody Whitehair. Not to mention the immense promise of rookies James Daniels and Anthony Miller this year. Chicago has 12 total picks the next two years. That two less than the normal 14, so it’s not that bad.
Then there are the immediate benefits
Last but not least? It does something people never would’ve expected. It puts the Bears in the playoff conversation. Let’s be real. Very few people with any credibility gave Chicago any hope of making it to the postseason. Playing in a stacked division on top of a stacked NFC conference seemed to negate all the work they’d done in free agency and the draft. It felt like only a truly bold move might tip the scale in their favor.
Enter Mack. Suddenly the difficult prospects of their early schedule? Not so daunting anymore.
“Think, too, of what Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson must be thinking this morning—Rodgers mostly. The Bears play the Packers and Seahawks in Weeks 1 and 2, and a rush with Mack, Hicks and Floyd is downright scary. If Mitch Trubisky is somewhere between competent and very good, the Bears will be a major factor in the NFC North much quicker than we thought.”
Here’s an interesting stat. Last season the Bears were 1-7 in games where they applied pressure on the quarterback 14 times or less. They were 4-4 in games where it was 15 times or more. Three of those losses were also aided by the offense scoring 10 points or fewer. So this statement is exactly right. Combining a Mack-infused pass rush with even a moderately improved offense makes this team dangerous.
