If the Chicago Bears aim to grab a quarterback in the 1st round, two things are known for sure. It will be between two of the top five on the board and they’ll likely have to move up into the top 10 picks to get one. While the second part has dominated discussions among fans and media for some time, the first part is also kind of important. People still aren’t entirely sure who might fall far enough for the Bears to go get.
There could finally be some clarity on that. For anybody who hasn’t been following, here’s a quick recap. Trevor Lawrence of Clemson and Zach Wilson of BYU will be the #1 and #2 picks in this draft. That is all but set in stone. What nobody can figure out is which quarterback will go at #3 to the San Francisco 49ers. Speculation has bounced back and forth from Trey Lance of North Dakota State to Mac Jones of Alabama and Justin Fields of Ohio State.
There is no consensus on who it will be.
At last, one insider believes he has a pretty good idea of what to expect on Thursday. Mike Silver of NFL Network has deep connections on the west coast. He did some digging the 49ers’ thought process. In his estimation, they knew who they wanted when they traded up. However, they kept an open mind as they continued evaluating the other two options. Once the dust settles, Silver thinks they’ll go with their original guy. That being Jones.
3) It is my belief that the player the Niners were targeting when they made the trade–under the assumption that Lawrence & Wilson would go 1-2 to the Jags and Jets–was Alabama QB Mac Jones. (Obviously, you only make this move if you also are very high on Lawrence and Wilson)…
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 23, 2021
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4) Once they made the trade, Shanahan, GM John Lynch & other important decision-makers had the luxury of doing some extra digging. Both Ohio State's Justin Fields & North Dakota St.'s Trey Lance have many attractive qualities, and there's no reason not to continue the process…
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 23, 2021
5) I'd expect, in all likelihood, that Shanahan will stick with his original inclination and won't end up deciding he likes Fields or Lance more than Jones… and that he'll never get a shot at Lawrence or Wilson, who will be off the board…
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 23, 2021
6) Why Jones? Among other things, the Niners believe he has uncanny pocket skills, especially out of the shotgun formation, and next-level footwork. He can slide in the pocket to either side and react quickly to onrushing defenders, even unblocked ones…
— Michael Silver (@MikeSilver) April 23, 2021
That is about as definitive as you’re going to get this time of year. Silver seems quite confident that Jones will be the pick when the action starts. That means the Bears’ choices will be narrowed to Lance or Fields. Both are prospects with high upside. Size, athleticism, and arm talent. Both also have question marks surrounding them. Lance only threw 318 passes in his college career. Fields is surrounded by concerns on whether he can process defenses quickly enough.
Is either of them the kind of prospect Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are willing to gamble their jobs on?
Chicago Bears have their preferences but how strong are they?
I reported a few days ago that the general feeling in Halas Hall is the Bears have their quarterback rankings set. The belief is Fields is their #1 guy of the three options that might be available. Despite lingering concerns about his processing speed, they see “superstar potential” in him. Given his mixture of size, speed, and arm talent? That makes sense. After what just happened with Mitch Trubisky, it also makes sense they’d be hesitant to gamble on another inexperienced quarterback like Lance.
Presuming this is how things are, that leaves the second question. How high up must the Chicago Bears go to get their guy? The Atlanta Falcons #4 pick remain a wild card. Matt Ryan is 36-years old. This might be their best chance to grab his heir apparent. However, their owner Arthur Blank is 78-years old. He might not be interested in shifting towards rebuild mode. So either they grab somebody else or trade the pick to a QB-needy team.
Would the Bears dare jump that high?
The price would be astronomical. Remember the 49ers gave up two future 1st round picks to go from #12 to #3. Going from #20 to #4 is an even bigger jump. It doesn’t make sense. The likelier scenario is Pace and Nagy will wait to see if their guy slips to the bottom of the top 10. Think somewhere between #8 and #10. If that happens, don’t be surprised if they make their push to move up.
What remains uncertain is if other teams might have designs on going after a quarterback as well. Denver (#9), Philadelphia (#12), New England (#15), and Washington (#19) are all threats to varying degrees. Chicago has a lot of obstacles to clear if they’re going to land who they want.