A lot of the conversations coming out of the loss in Green Bay have nothing to do with this Sunday regarding the Chicago Bears. A lot of fans aren’t even thinking about the Kansas City Chiefs or Patrick Mahomes. They don’t care. The game means nothing in the grand scheme. It’s time to look forward to 2020 and what this team can do to correct the problems that cost them a golden opportunity at the playoffs. Most of those conversations inevitably come around to quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
His 2019 season has disappointed in every facet. There is no arguing this. He is on pace to finish with fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and a lower completion percentage than he had a year ago. This despite being in the second year of Matt Nagy’s offense. Usually when this happens a quarterback is supposed to improve. That hasn’t been the case he. Trubisky got off to a terrible start, posting an 80.0 passer rating in his first seven games.
To his credit he has improved down the stretch, raising it to an 88.3 rating in the past six games. However, that’s still well below what he finished with in 2018. He has just 17 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions and was far less of a threat with his legs as well. It is because of this across-the-board regression that many feel the Bears will be proactive at quarterback next year. They almost have to be right? If not an outright replacement, they should at least spend to get some competition.
While that makes perfect logical sense, it won’t happen. Here’s why.
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Bears don’t have the resources to end Mitch Trubisky yet
Facts are facts. Making meaningful changes at the quarterback position are almost always expensive. Either they sign a notable free agent which would be at least $10 million if they play to actually give him a chance to compete. That is only made worse if they decide to trade for somebody because then they’re giving up not only lots of money but a draft pick as well.
The Bears just aren’t in a position to do something like this. They’re projected to start with less than $12 million in salary cap space next spring. Considering the fact they have 21 players set to become free agents alone? That is not a lot to work with. They will likely have to make some significant moves just to create more space. Signing or trading for a quarterback would eat a sizable chunk out of that budget.
So what about the draft?
Rookie contracts are far more team-friendly and inexpensive by comparison. However, the Bears don’t have a 1st round pick. This due to the massive package they gave up for Khalil Mack. All they have are two 2nd round choices. Would you care to know how many 2nd round quarterback went on to become instant starters and had immediate success? That would be one. Andy Dalton took over in 2011 for the Cincinnati Bengals and went 9-7 that year. Keep in mind this is out of 21 quarterbacks dating back to 2000.
So the Bears have a choice. Either they spend money they don’t really have to get an expensive veteran who probably won’t move the needle too much or they take a giant gamble on a rookie 2nd round pick. Neither idea makes one feel much better about the Bears’ prospects for 2020. This leaves one course of action.
They will stick with Trubisky.
Here’s the way the Bears brass probably sees things. Has Mitch struggled in 2019? Absolutely. Was he the only one though? Not even close. The entire offense was a mess. They boast the 29th ranked rushing attack in the league and have yet to see their entire tight end position crack 300 yards total for the season. The offensive line is banged up and has underperformed significantly from last season. If all of those areas were executing better but the quarterback wasn’t functioning, that might be different.
This isn’t the case.
Nagy and GM Ryan Pace will go into the offseason thinking that they have more than just one fire to put out and not a lot of water to do it with. So they have a choice. Do they make a hard push to change quarterbacks and hope that solves everything or do they stick with Trubisky and pour the resources they do have into fixing the rest of the roster? The latter is most likely for two reasons.
The organization still believes in Trubisky and trust he’s still improving, if not at the fastest rate. They also know that this team already made the playoffs with him once before. That was when everything else on offense functioned a lot better. Fix those issues and they can do it again.
Is it basically going all-in? Yes. There is an obvious risk in such a decision, but to be honest the alternatives this offseason aren’t much better. Most of the best ones are way too expensive and the rest won’t move the needle. The Bears still believe they can win with Trubisky. It’s a matter of not making things harder for him than they have to be.
If it doesn’t work out? It’s a shame, but there is one small thing to remember. The Bears will re-enter the 1st round in 2021 with a hopefully fortified roster to welcome that next quarterback.
