It’s important to never get too lost in the raw numbers when it comes to predicting how an NFL season will go. At the same time, math might be one of the most important parts of professional sports. If nothing else they can reveal a lot that people might not see. So see the Chicago Bears stat projections for 2017 from ESPN was more than a little revealing.
Their expert Mike Clay, who also hosts a radio show on SiriusXM, did a full comprehensive breakdown of the Bears’s season. Not just the likely numbers their players will put up too. He did win total as well. There were more than few revealing tidbits from it, which can be see below. Suffice to say there is some to like and some to dislike.
Chicago Bears stat projections
2017 Chicago Bears game-by-game predictions, player projections and unit grades: pic.twitter.com/5pGjBkDkTK
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) June 9, 2017
Jordan Howard dominates
Perhaps the most predictable note from this list is the fact that running back Jordan Howard continues his ascent to the top of the NFL. Expectations are for him to post 1,274 yards rushing with another 232 through the air and nine total touchdowns. That’s solid work given he’ll almost certainly be the focus of opposing defenses.
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Disappointing record
Normally it should be a good thing when a team doubles their win total from the year before. It rings kind of hollow though when it involves going from 3-13 to 6-10. This would mark the fourth-straight losing season for the Bears. It would also result in just 14 total wins for head coach John Fox across three years. Almost a certain result that will get him fired.
Improved secondary
As a team the Bears secondary had just eight interceptions total in 2016. That’s bad. Really bad. It’s a big reason why they invested so heavily in the unit this offseason. Expectations are for things to get better in 2017. Clay sees the starters posting nine interceptions with an additional two from linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan.
Glennon survives 12 games before Trubisky switch
By far the most interesting projection on the chart though stood at quarterback. Not so much the gross yardage or touchdown totals either. It’s how long starter Mike Glennon lasts before rookie Mitch Trubisky replaces him. The Bears have been quite adamant that they intend for Glennon to play the full season. Anyone with common sense knows though that the team will make the switch when the time is right.
Glennon is expected to make it 12 games, having posted just 15 touchdown passes to nine interceptions by that point. Given the expected Bears record, it’s not hard to see why the switch would take place. Based on the layout it would come in Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field. Seems reasonable enough. Debut the kid at home against another rebuilding team.
That will give him a solid month of playing time towards the end of the year on a relatively lighter schedule. A great way to get him some experience and confidence going into 2018. Whether all of this comes true won’t be known until they play the actual games. Bears fans can only hope some of it does and some of it doesn’t.
