The Chicago Bears face a problem. They’re picking 25th overall in the 1st round. Yet according to most draft experts, this class is light on legitimate blue-chip talent. ESPN circled only 11 of them this year, which is one of the lowest numbers in a long time. Chicago had remarkably good fortune in 2025 as two of those talents, Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, fell to them in the 1st and 2nd rounds. It seems unrealistic to expect lightning to strike again this time. However, if it does, there is only one semi-realistic name that could fall that far: Caleb Downs.
Going into the pre-draft process, many labeled the Ohio State safety as one of the best prospects at his position in years. Some even mentioned the forbidden Ed Reed comparisons. There is no denying the talent. Downs was a vital component of the Buckeyes’ national championship in 2024. He has size, range, instincts, and the ability to thrive in coverage or along the line of scrimmage. Many see him as an agent of chaos, making life much more difficult for opposing quarterbacks.
So why would he fall?
Chicago Bears reason #1 – Downs plays a “non-premium” position.
These days, NFL teams talk a lot about positional value going into a draft. They prefer to focus their most important resources on positions they feel have the greatest impact on the game. At the top are quarterbacks, left tackles, pass rushers, and cornerbacks. Safeties aren’t in that same tier, which is why many teams are reluctant to spend 1st round picks on them. Only one went in the top 32 last year when Malaki Starks went 27th overall to Baltimore. The year before that, none went until Tyler Nubin at 47th overall in the 2nd round.
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Even safeties considered elite don’t go as high these days as many have projected. Derwin James, one of the best in the league, was expected not to fall out of the top 10 in 2018. He ended up going 17th. Jamal Adams was the only one to break the mold by going 6th overall in 2017, and that could be seen as a mistake given how his New York Jets tenure went. The trends speak for themselves. As hyped a prospect as he’s been, Downs doesn’t play a position most teams consider vital.
Reason #2 – Good-not-great athletic ceiling.
For all the Ed Reed talk, experts who have watched Downs use more measured comparisons for him. NFL.com saw Jalen Pitre as his likeliest one. A scout inside the league itself compared him to Budda Baker. Pitre and Baker both went in the 2nd round. Much of this could be due to Downs’ good-not-great athletic profile. He didn’t perform at the scouting combine, so nobody is sure what his measurables are. That uncertainty isn’t helping his draft stock.
Meanwhile, Dillon Thieneman of Oregon crushed his combine performance, establishing himself as a top-caliber player at his position from a talent standpoint. Anybody who has followed the draft long enough knows that teams tend to lean towards elite athletes in the 1st round. Downs is a good athlete. Nobody disputes that. Elite though? Not really. All of these factors could push him down the board. All the way to the Chicago Bears? Crazier things have happened.
