It is never wise to assume anything with the NFL draft. Yes, the Chicago Bears are well-positioned to trade the pick at some point over the next month or so. They have their QB in place with Justin Fields. They’re a rebuilding team. More draft picks via trading down makes too much sense. That said, a strong market is required for that to happen. The #1 pick has only been traded twice in the past 22 years. It isn’t easy. GM Ryan Poles must weigh the offers he gets carefully. If the value isn’t there, passing on the top players on his board seems unwise.
One person that has been around these types of situations for a long time is Daniel Jeremiah. Before becoming the top draft expert for NFL Network, he worked as a scout for the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Philadelphia Eagles. In that time, he saw plenty of trades go down. Based on that experience, he has a pretty good idea of what the Bears could be looking at in terms of offers. During a pre-scouting combine conference call, he explained that three times stand out as likely contenders for the #1 spot.
He revealed who they are and what their trade packages would look like.
“If you look at those trades — trade-ups for quarterbacks, usually when you look at the trade chart, it’s about 120 percent, give or take, in terms of the trade chart value. You have to pay a premium if you are going to come up for a quarterback, which is great news there for the Bears.
So if you are just going to go back to pick No. 2, you’re going to get the second pick, the 33rd pick, and next year’s two. That would be the trade you would have there with the Texans. If you go to four, would you have to give up a fourth-round pick this year? Or, sorry. A fourth-round pick in 2024 as well as the No. 1 overall pick. You would get No. 4 overall, No. 35 overall, and a first-round pick in ’24, and a second-round pick in ’24. If you want to go all the way to nine, you are going to get the ninth pick, you are going to get the 39th pick, and get a first round in ’24 and a first round in ’25.”
The Chicago Bears should be happy with those possibilities.
Either way, Poles would end up with multiple quality extra picks to help continue building his roster. The decision will come down to a simple question. How far is the gap between the top players on his board and those he might get near the bottom of the top 10? If he doesn’t see much difference between, say, Jalen Carter of Georgia and Peter Skoronski of Northwestern, then the Panthers’ offer seems like the most obvious. It nets two future 1st round picks. However, if Carter or Will Anderson stands far above the other options, then the more modest drops to #2 or #4 make more sense.
Much of this hinges on how the quarterback pecking order shakes out. If one begins standing out far above the rest, the frenzy to move up for him will increase. Having the Texans sitting at #2 makes it far more likely that the Chicago Bears will get plenty of phone calls. Recent word is they’re all in on Alabama’s Bryce Young. Jeremiah himself said Young, despite the size concerns, is the most complete QB prospect in this class. If another team feels that way, expect them to try for that #1 spot.
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Sports Mockery always seems to have these enticing article names and inside information and it’s really just re worded titles from other articles like “Poles confirms a Fields trade isn’t off the table” or “insider reveals Poles plans for draft and could trade Justin Fields on draft night” or something like that, maybe it’s just me, either way 🐻⬇️FAM
Funny how much better/different these projected trade packages are from the article with basically same name just like a week ago from same teams even…. Lol
@T-Pain – Besides “Blue Chip” talent, you also find countless “disappointments” in the Top Ten of the 1st round. Trubisky (#2), K White (#7), L. Floyd (#9), etc., all drafted in Top Ten.
I’m with Gator Joe on this one, trade back until Poles accumulates Six to eight 2nd and 3rd rounders along with extra draft capital for next year. I trust Poles knows what he’s doing.
Like @Kjmerk said, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”
I understand getting all you can for that 1st pick but this team doesn’t even have a blue chip player yet. Hopefully Fields will grow into one but you can’t win in this league without at least a couple guys that are top 10 at their position and you usually get those guys way early in the first round. I understand needing depth but don’t concentrate so much on depth that you run yourself away from getting true difference makers.
The only issue with trying to build through the draft within a year or 2 is they will all come up for a contract extension at the same time. This is why getting picks for next year is valuable too.