Many Chicago Bears fans are predicting/hoping the team decides to focus on helping their expected rookie quarterback by giving him another weapon with the 9th overall pick. That means taking one of the top wide receivers. Most projections have Washington’s Rome Odunze being the most likely to be available at that spot, with Malik Nabers of LSU having a slim chance. Both are highly rated both inside the NFL and among top draft experts. Ending up with either would be a big win for GM Ryan Poles.
On the other hand, some experts aren’t quick to stay with the status quo. Aaron Schatz is one such person. The ESPN analytics expert evaluated the wide receiver class from a different perspective. He used their best season in college and some other bits of data to establish what he calls a Playmaker Score. This projects how many yards per season the floor will be for each player. In this case, if you top 600 yards per year, you’re expected to be pretty good. If you’re over 700, you should be really good. According to Schatz, only two players topped that mark based on his data. One is Nabers. The other is an unexpected curveball.
“2. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
Playmaker Score projection: 750 yards/season
Scouts Inc. ranking: 24
Similar historical prospects: John Ross, Calvin Johnson
3. Rome Odunze, Washington
Playmaker Score projection: 694 yards/season
Scouts Inc. ranking: 8
Similar historical prospects: Sammy Watkins, Michael Clayton”
Don’t forget Ryan Poles embraces the analytics side, too.
Maybe he is seeing the same data Schatz has. Brian Thomas Jr. is an absolute physical specimen. He’s 6’3, 209 lbs, and has 4.33 speed. When he puts his full intent into his routes, he can beat any cornerback he lines up against. This has drawn comparisons to Seahawks superstar DK Metcalf. While Nabers may have gotten most of the attention at LSU, Thomas Jr. scored 17 touchdowns and has the higher ceiling, according to most draft experts you talk to. The only concern is that 2023 was his only great season. He’s a bit of a one-year wonder. Teams still have concerns about his attention to detail and ability to focus.
Odunze is a good player, but the data suggests that is what he will be in the pros, too—good, not great. Thomas Jr. has that kind of potential. Ryan Poles is a traits guy. He likes drafting players with outstanding measurables. Big, strong, and fast. Would the Bears be willing to take a calculated risk on that upside? Thomas Jr. wouldn’t have to carry the load right away. He would learn under D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, two of the best technicians in the NFL. A player with that kind of raw ability couldn’t ask for better mentors.
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Something to keep in mind as the draft gets closer.
“Traits” are great if you have coaches who have the ability to teach and players who have the ability and desire to learn. Otherwise, “traits” are wasted picks. Everyone talks about “veterans” and how their practice and technique will run off on young draftees, but most players aren’t great at coaching someone who thinks differently than them, or has different physical traits than them.
I like Brian Thomas Jr. I like speed, but speed is raw. Technique beats more types of defenders. Who knows.
A single indice? Data or datum? Tidbits? An expert? Credentials? Such shallowness is an insult to intelligence in this era of scientific analytics, even for da bears fans. How about employing multi-level structural equation modeling for providing more potent empirical finding and increased explanation of such? (Sorry Aaron, I just finished my ugly taxes.)
TY for the skinny on the Cousins scenario, Dr. Mel.
@V5THNOV: Sure. It’s cool. Your list is solid. I like Thomas about as much as AD, otherwise I agree. That said, note that Schatz’s list (‘expert’ in the article) is based on the WR’s best year in college. Thomas only had one really good year in college. Odunze had many. That skews the playing field towards Thomas. Further, Daniels is a better QB than Penix, so Thomas had Daniels throwing to him, and Nabers drawing more coverage attention. It’s a legitimate question, whether one or two of Nabers, Thomas, and Daniels benefitted from the skill of the other one/two to… Read more »
Aaron, you should have listened to your parents to become a lawyer or physician…and stay away from football. Your index for ranking types of WRs suffers from total simplicity. Tennis anyone?