If there were a betting favorite in Las Vegas for the likely outcome of the Chicago Bears quarterback situation, it would be as follows. GM Ryan Poles trades Justin Fields to an interested team, likely securing a 2nd round pick in return. Then he turns around and selects the quarterback of his choice with the #1 overall pick in April. USC’s Caleb Williams appears to be the heavy favorite for that honor. Some are still holding out hope the Bears repeat what they did last year, keeping Fields and trading the #1 pick for a haul. However, circumstances this year are different.
Fields’ rookie contract is entering its final year. The Bears would have to pick up his 5th-year option, which would be well north of $20 million. While he did improve in 2023, most would agree he is still an average passer at best. Nobody would mistake him for franchise-altering. Some believe another elite weapon across from D.J. Moore would help with that problem. Maybe if the Bears didn’t hold the #1 pick, it would be different. But they do. That is why top insiders like Albert Breer of the MMQB believe a trade is coming.
He even went so far as to pinpoint when it will likely happen.
“I’d say better than even odds that the Chicago Bears take Caleb Williams first—and the clock is ticking on making that decision, believe it or not. If Chicago wants to extract the best value it can for Justin Fields, it’d be preferable to get the process of finding a trade partner off the ground between now and the beginning of March.
Once the league year starts, quarterback spots across the NFL will start to fill up. Kirk Cousins will decide on a home. Baker Mayfield will, too. And so will scores of others. So if the Bears drag their feet on this, they could miss the market at the position.
That’s why I’d bet that Fields could be moved around the time of the NFL Scouting Combine or so … if I were a betting man.”
Justin Fields’ fate will be sealed by the end of February.
The scouting combine runs from February 26th through March 4th. For those who don’t remember, that event helped Poles seal the deal with Carolina for the #1 pick last year. The combine ended on March 6th. Four days later, on the 10th, the trade was announced. Breer is correct. There is a strong probability Poles will know who the contenders are for Fields and who is likely to give him his best deal. Over the past two years, he’s shown that he can get great value in trades. Securing 4th and 6th round picks for Robert Quinn and Chase Claypool are perfect examples.
It feels like the only way this course gets altered is if something happens during the pre-draft interview process to give the Bears cold feet. Maybe Williams and the other top quarterbacks give off some red flags Poles doesn’t like. In such a case, the team could pivot back to Justin Fields and move to trade the #1 pick. However, that feels unlikely. Chicago has heavily researched these QBs for two years. They probably have a firm grasp of their personalities by this point. Things should come to a head later this month.
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