How One Stat Will Help The Chicago Bears Find The Pass Rusher They Need

Drafting pass rushers has been a struggle for the Chicago Bears for years. Only three players in franchise history have crossed the 50-sack line: Dan Hampton, Steve McMichael, and Richard Dent. All retired in the 1990s. Trace Armstrong and Alex Brown both managed over 40, but one was traded, and the other faded after that. Leonard Floyd is now at 70 for his career, but most of that was done with other teams. Bears general manager Ryan Poles hasn’t had much luck in this department either. All of his attempts in the draft to this point have been solid at best, like Gervon Dexter and Austin Booker. No outright hits.

That must change this year if he’s going to get the defense up to a level where they can compete in the playoffs. Chicago picks 25th overall in the 1st round, though. That makes the job hard since plenty of teams picking ahead of them will take pass rushers. It’s a premium position for a reason. So if the Bears want to find somebody with good odds of being productive in the pros, they must dig deep for answers. Most will say you have to watch the tape, don’t lean on the stats to tell you anything. This is partly true, unless you know which stats to look at.

One that isn’t talked about at all is TFL/G, or tackles for loss per game.

The Chicago Bears should pay close attention to this stat.

Yes, nothing is perfect. As you can see, there are exceptions to the rule. Walker and Hutchinson have both become very good pass rushers. Courtney Brown flamed out, although injuries played a part in that. Yet the data seems pretty reliable. Out of 22 rushers picked in the 1st round since 2000 who managed 1.00 TFL/G or better, 21 of them have had what can at least be called a good career. Three are already in the Hall of Fame, and seven others seem virtually guaranteed to join. If the player is at 0.80 or better, their odds are still favorable.

Unfortunately, the Bears haven’t really followed this trend for years. Since 2010, they’ve selected eight players in the first three rounds who can be constituted as pass rushers. Only two of them cleared the 0.80 mark.

Sutton, a 3rd round defensive tackle known for size and power concerns, didn’t work out. Floyd, as stated above, has carved out a great career with a Super Bowl ring. Only one of the six other names who failed to reach that mark (Dexter) went on to become productive. Don’t forget they took McClellin over Chandler Jones. They also had DeMarcus Ware (1.27) on the board in 2005 when they selected Cedric Benson. It’s remarkable how consistently bad they’ve been at this.

That leads to the question of who the Bears should draft.

There is some excitement around the group of rushers in this class. It’s a deep, diverse, and productive group. Does the data point to anybody in particular? Interestingly, only two names in the class of potential 1st round picks manage to clear the 0.80 floor. One is Rueben Bain Jr., Miami’s dominant defensive end at 1.02. He is expected to go in the top 10. The other might catch some by surprise. It is Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas, who many had as a 2nd round guy going into this offseason.

Jacas is far more likely than Bain to be an option for the Chicago Bears. He has good enough size, considerable power, the flexibility to bend the edge, and shows a consistently hot motor. The fact that he plays in their backyard makes it extra delicious. The Bears haven’t picked a player from Illinois in the 1st round since Dick Butkus in 1965. This could be the perfect time to end that drought. If the data can be trusted, and history says it’s reliable, then Jacas could become a quality player for this defense.

Will Poles and the coaching staff see it that way? Probably not. It will be interesting to see if the data holds up in the long term.