Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson loves running the football. It is a core part of his identity as an offensive play caller and designer. One can’t argue with that, considering the success it has brought his teams over the past four years. That said, he never neglects his quarterbacks. Caleb Williams had the fifth-most passing attempts in the NFL last season. Johnson found a great balance between sticking with the run and ensuring his young quarterback could still sling the ball.
One would expect that approach to continue in 2026. After all, it led to 11 wins and a division title last season. However, if there’s one thing we know about Johnson, it’s that he operates with peak competitiveness. Whenever he feels someone is doubting him or his players, he takes it personally. It would appear oddsmakers just gave him some delicious incentive. According to CBS Sports, Williams is projected to finish with fewer yards and touchdowns than last season, again failing to crack 4,000. Some of the odds are almost comical.
Ben Johnson should be livid with some of them.
“Will that change this year with Williams? Oddsmakers say no, with Williams priced +200 to throw for at least 4,000 yards. He has an over/under passing yardage total of 3,624.5 yards along with 24.5 passing touchdowns. Do I think Williams getting to 4,000 should be an underdog? I do…
…DraftKings offers two specials on Williams: +175 that he throws for 400 yards in any regular-season game and +100000 that the former Heisman winner throws for at least 250 yards in all 17. Rather comically, my Bears have only had four games with a 400-yard passer and not since Nov. 14, 1999, when Jim Miller threw for 422 yards against the Vikings.”
These marks don’t seem as daunting as oddsmakers think.
Right now, Jay Cutler holds the Bears franchise record with eight games of 250 passing yards or more in a season. Williams had six in 2025. He was within 30 yards or less in three others. One must wonder how different those numbers might’ve looked if his 58% completion rate wasn’t so low. As for the 400-yard game? Williams crossed 330 yards five times between last season and 2024. He is fully capable of putting up big numbers any given week. Is it so hard to believe that another year in Johnson’s offense and a deep cast of weapons could see both bars reached?
Not that Williams is entirely motivated by his stat line. While he’s said 4,000 yards is a goal of his, it isn’t the primary one. He has maintained since arriving in Chicago that winning Super Bowls is what matters. If that means he sometimes has to throw for 150 yards and a touchdown while the run game does the work? So be it. That is part of what makes him such a good leader for the Bears. It’s not all about him. He might be the center of attention for the media, but it never gets to his head.
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Don’t be afraid to place those bets.
Remember, Williams came within 60 yards of 4,000 last season despite the worst completion percentage in football. If he improves that even by three percentage points, he clears that bar comfortably. The same goes for that 400-yard game bet. He had 361 against Green Bay in the playoffs. The Bears will play a handful of teams with bad pass defenses at some point this coming season. If the run game struggles to get on track early in one of them, Ben Johnson won’t hesitate to let his quarterback sling it.
Chicago has plenty of weapons to make such a feat possible. Colston Loveland emerged as a budding star last season. Rome Odunze is dynamic when healthy, and Luther Burden was electric as a deep threat. Add D’Andre Swift’s capability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield and you have a pretty good recipe for major passing numbers. Everything comes back to Williams’ ability to string passes together. Betting against him hasn’t been the smartest play in recent years.
