The Chicago Bears have remained cryptic on what their 2018 John Fox stance is. From a logical perspective this coming season feels like make-or-break time for the 62-year old. His team has undergone a massive transformation in the past two years. Just 11 of the original 90 players he inherited remain on the roster. It’s now one of the youngest in the league. One that is also preparing to break in three new quarterbacks.
Are the Bears willing to overlook another difficult season in the name of keeping continuity for the players? Even Fox himself hinted that’s unlikely. The NFL has been and remains a performance-based business. If a coach isn’t winning enough games, he’s not going to last long. Fox has survived to this point because he inherited a mess and the players play hard for him.
That said the third year is often considered go time for rebuilt teams. Despite such a tough two seasons in the rear view mirror, does history favor the coach reaching the light at the end of the tunnel?
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2018 John Fox hopes hinge on unfavorable odds
Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune raised an interesting stat in a recent article. He reviewed every head coach over the past 17 years. The idea was to pinpoint the ones who experienced similar starts to their tenures like Fox and how they did going into the third year and beyond.
“Since 2000, history has not been kind to coaches who post a 9-23 record or worse in their first two seasons. Of the 11 previous coaches who met those criteria, six were fired before Year 3:
• Dennis Erickson, 49ers, 9-23, 2003-04
• Norv Turner, Raiders, 9-23, 2004-05
• Pat Shurmer, Browns, 9-23, 2011-12
• Dick LeBeau, Bengals, 8-24, 2001-02
• Lovie Smith, Bucs, 8-24, 2014-15
• Marty Mornhinweg, Lions, 5-27, 2001-02
The Lions’ Jim Schwartz was the most successful of those coaches to stick it out, and that says a lot as his five-year run ended at 29-51. He took over after the 0-16 disaster in 2008 and won eight games over his first two seasons. He lasted three more seasons with one playoff appearance and only one winning season.
Dom Capers got two more years in Houston after a 9-23 start for the expansion Texans. Gus Bradley (7-25 with Jaguars) also got two more years, and Dennis Allen (8-24 with Raiders) and Steve Spagnuolo (8-24 with Rams) each got one more.”
That is not a pretty picture. Between all of those coaches mentioned, only one made the playoffs. Two words not mentioned once in that entire quote? Super Bowl. The end game of this entire enterprise is for the Bears to compete for championships. A popular saying in the NFL is it’s not how you start but how you finish.
That’s true, but it’s also partially false. The start matters too. Whether it’s to a half, a game or a season. Starting well builds momentum for the future.
Just look at the teams who’ve won the Super Bowl lately
Examine the list of recent champions and more often than not one will find that those current regimes experienced a relatively fast start to their runs.
- 2014-2016 Patriots: Bill Belichick won first Super Bowl in second season
- 2015 Broncos: Gary Kubiak won Super Bowl his first year
- 2013 Seahawks: Pete Carroll won seven games each of first two years
- 2012 Ravens: John Harbaugh made the playoffs his first year
- 2011 Giants: Tom Coughlin made the playoffs his second year
- 2010 Packers: Mike McCarthy made the NFC championship his second year
It’s not an isolated case. Coaches who are able to start fast tend to carry that into the following years. John Fox has failed in that regard. To be fair he pulled it off twice before in Carolina and Denver, but even good head coaches run out of magic eventually. It just feels like he may not have any left for Chicago.
