Jordan Howard doesn’t get a lot of respect these days. Every time the subject of who the best running backs are in the game today, it’s usually the same names coming up. There’s Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott. Lately, even #2 overall pick Saquon Barkley, who has yet to play an NFL down, is getting more favorable coverage than the Bears star.
How is that possible? There are a few likely reasons. Howard is an unassuming person. He’s known for being quiet and humble. He’s not the flashy type, which ironically makes him easier to forget. Then there’s his playing style. Howard might be, for now at least, what one would call a “throwback.” He’s a classic running back who does just that: runs. Catching the ball as a receiver out of the backfield? Not exactly his strength.
In the eyes of modern evaluators, this makes him limited as a player. Last but not least? He’s playing for the Bears, a team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2012. In this sport, individual recognition often goes hand in hand with team achievement. An understandable if unfortunate reality.
That said, this isn’t a universal thing. Howard has his supporters out there, and one of them just went to bat for him.
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Jordan Howard predicted to lead the NFL in rushing for 2018
If there’s anybody who can appreciate an old school type of player, it’s Gil Brandt. The man has been in the NFL since all the way back in 1955. He was one of the chief executives that helped the Dallas Cowboys go from an expansion team in 1960 to America’s Team in the 1970s. He has two Super Bowl rings to prove it.
Since retiring from the front office, he’s stayed close to the game as a chief analyst for NFL.com. In his latest column, he made his predictions for who would be the stat leaders on offense and defense this 2018 season. Bears fans will be surprised by his choice for rushing champion.
“This might seem like kind of a reach, given that the league leader in rushing over the past five seasons has averaged 1,579 yards, while Howard barely topped 1,000 in 2017. But I happen to think the Bears will run the ball a lot this season, to protect second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky. And Howard is a very, very good runner.
Don’t forget that first-year Bears head coach Matt Nagy, in his role as offensive coordinator of the Chiefs, helped Kareem Hunt lead the league in rushing last season while also pushing Kansas City QB Alex Smith to 4,042 yards (eighth in the NFL) on 505 attempts (13th). So even if Trubisky takes on more of the offensive burden than he did as a rookie, it’s conceivable that Howard could still produce at a prolific rate under Nagy.”
Brandt sees Howard claiming the crown with 1,400 yards rushing.
If things play out that way, Howard would achieve a career-high in rushing yards. Perfect timing since he’ll be entering his contract year in 2019. Is it possible? Yes. Brandt is correct that arrival of Nagy is crucial. People think the new head coach was hired to elevate only Mitch Trubisky. That couldn’t be further from the truth.
He can also do great things for Howard, and it starts with embracing a minor shift in the scheme the Bears failed to capitalize on last year.
Per @SportsInfo_SIS, over the last two seasons, Jordan Howard has averaged 1.7 more yds/carry in 3WR sets and 2.6 more ypc in shotgun, but just 31% of his carries came in 3WR and 24% from shotgun.
Under Matt Nagy, Kareem Hunt saw 45% of carries in 3WR sets and 49% from shotgun.
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) July 25, 2018
Howard averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 2017 out of the shotgun formation. In 2016 as a rookie? It was 7.0 yards per attempt. How the previous Bears coaching staff didn’t do everything in their power to feature that every week is baffling. Don’t expect Nagy to make the same mistake. This new offense is expected to feature lots of Run-Pass Option plays, which often include runs from a shotgun formation.
Combined with the improvements at wide receiver and tight end to ease defensive presence in the box, it’s fair to assume Howard’s going to do a lot of damage this season.
