Caleb Williams is passing the eye test for most who understand the game of football. He’s conducting the offense with so much more expertise than he did last season. His field vision is better, he’s making good decisions, and continues to make otherworldly plays when the need arises. The problem is he still hasn’t overcome his accuracy issues. His completion percentage has dropped below 58% after the loss to Green Bay on Sunday. Not all of this is because Williams is airmailing throws, but more than enough aren’t on target, making it an issue.
Some are concerned whether the Bears’ quarterback can overcome this. Accuracy is said to be something that cannot be automatically fixed. You either have it or you don’t. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune spoke to a longtime league expert about it. He feels Williams has natural accuracy. His problems have primarily come from mechanical issues. His footwork is still too erratic, and it’s impacting his weight distribution. That is why too many passes sail on him. That said, there is one big advantage Williams has that can help fix the problem.
I had an interesting conversation with a longtime league observer the other day, and he made a really interesting point. His opinion was that quarterbacks with the best chance to go from being inaccurate — Williams entered the week last among the 33 qualifiers at 58.1% — to very accurate are better athletes.
His theory is it’s easier for highly skilled, quick-twitch athletes to make mechanical adjustments, starting with their feet, than less athletic, pure pocket passers who have been throwing the ball the same way since the start of their college or even high school careers.
Does the data back this up for Caleb Williams? You might be surprised.
I found that assessment interesting, so I decided to do some research. The following list involves names who were acclaimed as the most athletic quarterbacks of their respective eras. I then examined whether their accuracy improved over time by tracking their completion percentages from the first half of their careers to the second.
Fran Tarkenton
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- First half of career – 53.9%
- Second half of career – 59.7%
Randall Cunningham
- First half of career – 55.4%
- Second half of career – 58.6%
Steve Young
- First half of career – 58%
- Second half of career – 66.6%
Steve McNair
- First half of career – 57.6%
- Second half of career – 61.9%
Michael Vick
- First half of career – 53.8%
- Second half of career – 59%
Donovan McNabb
- First half of career – 58.3%
- Second half of career – 59.6%
Russell Wilson
- First half of career – 64.2%
- Second half of career* – 65.2%
The data doesn’t lie. Every quarterback listed saw their accuracy improve as their careers progressed. Some of them went up by five or six percentage points. That is a massive jump. Current examples, such as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, further these findings. Allen was 62.3% in his first four seasons. He now sits at 65.6%. Jackson went from 64.1% to 65.3%. If Caleb Williams stays committed to learning the position and refining his mechanics in the coming years, he will begin connecting on passes with greater frequency.
