GM Ryan Pace predictably didn’t offer much in the way of information regarding his plans for the upcoming draft. Will the Chicago Bears trade up? He said anything is possible and left it at that. Thus the debates and predictions continue to fly. Nobody can say with any certainty the Bears will indeed go after “their guy” in the top 10. It isn’t hard to envision for some since Pace has a long track record of being aggressive.
Yet one former GM believes it’s precisely that track record that will lead to the opposite of what people expect. Scott Pioli ran the war room for several years between his stints in New England and Kansas City. He knows the perils and promise of moving around in the draft via trades. He doesn’t think Pace and the Bears will have the stomach to move up for a quarterback. Not after what happened with Mitch Trubisky back in 2017.
Will the @ChicagoBears mortgage their future in order to make a big move up in the #NFLDraft ? #NFL #GMFB @KyleBrandt pic.twitter.com/7UsLyHBrQJ
— Scott Pioli (@scottpioli51) April 27, 2021
Has the Trubisky misfire made the Bears gunshy?
It’s something that hasn’t really been discussed a lot thanks to the madness of this offseason. Yet it is a viable topic. The Bears gave up three additional picks to move up from #3 overall to #2 four years ago. One of those picks ended up being Alvin Kamara. Just a little insult to injury. Is Pace ready to cast that blunder aside and try it all over again, perhaps giving up even more future draft capital the second time around?
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As Pioli mentions, a better question is whether George McCaskey is willing to let him do it. While the Bears chairman made it clear he wanted to keep Pace, he also may understand it’s a good idea to keep a tighter leash on his young GM. That sounds counterintuitive, but is it? Pace has traded up aggressively in three of his past four drafts. In addition to the original picks surrendered, the Bears also lost a future 2nd round pick, two 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, and a 5th round pick.
For their troubles, they ended up with Trubisky, Anthony Miller, and David Montgomery. Not the greatest investment.
Chicago Bears trade up will be a massive roll of the dice
Regardless of what happens, they’re going to end up with either the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board. Looking back over recent history, the draft hasn’t been kind to teams picking guys in that range.
- Derek Carr (4th)
- Jimmy Garroppolo (5th)
- Sean Mannion (4th)
- Bryce Petty (5th)
- Christian Hackenberg (4th)
- Jacoby Brissett (5th)
- DeShone Kizer (4th)
- Davis Webb (5th)
- Josh Rosen (4th)
- Lamar Jackson (5th)
Not the most inspiring list. While some have worked out well like Carr and Jackson, most didn’t amount to much. It’s also worth noting none of these names have a Super Bowl ring. So if a Chicago Bears trade up does happen, that should offer an idea of how big the risk is they’re taking.
They are gambling that the three or four teams who took a quarterback ahead of them miscalculated and let one of the better ones slip through.
That is either great trust in the class’s depth or their own evaluations.
Given what happened four years ago? Bears fans would be mortified if it were the latter. What Pioli says has merit. Pace has good reasons to feel a bit uncertain about another aggressive swing at quarterback. At the same time, his job could be on the line this year. So the desperation factor must be taken into account. That may cancel out any doubts he might have.
