ESPN Picks Chicago Bears To Win Super Bowl LXI — Here’s How

Super Bowl LX has come and gone. The Seattle Seahawks claimed their second crown in 12 years. As they bask in the joy of the accomplishment, 31 other teams are already focused on 2026 and Super Bowl LXI. That includes the Chicago Bears, who just completed their most successful season in 15 years. Their 11-6 record, division title, and playoff victory over the Green Bay Packers felt like getting multiple monkeys off their backs. For the first time in years, they’re free to chase a bigger prize. Their first Lombardi trophy in 41 years certainly ranks at the top.

Still, most experts aren’t buying the Bears as a legitimate threat. They haven’t been on the stage long enough. Plenty of teams have made surprising runs for one year and then faded into the background. See the Washington Commanders. The Bears are probably a flash in the pan. That is why most of ESPN’s experts picked teams like the Rams, Chiefs, 49ers, and Broncos to hoist the trophy next February, save for one. Former defensive back Matt Bowen believes it will be the Bears, provided they address one remaining roster issue.

What’s your early Super Bowl LXI pick?

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Bears over Bills. Chicago needs to add pass rushers, but the foundational players are there on offense under coach Ben Johnson. With quarterback Caleb Williams’ playmaking ability, the Bears will beat Josh Allen and Joe Brady’s Bills to win Super Bowl LXI.

Bowen’s advice is overly simple for the Chicago Bears, but also correct.

NFL history has seen plenty of changes to the game of football. However, one fundamental truth has remained the same. If your team has a good quarterback and a good pass rush, you are going to compete for a championship. Anybody who doesn’t believe it merely has to look at the results of the past decade of Super Bowls. Of the ten winners, nine had either a Pro Bowl quarterback or a future Hall of Fame quarterback. What many don’t realize is that most of them also had effective pass rushes.

Like it or not, this isn’t a lesson the Chicago Bears have been good at learning over the past several years. They’ve had good pass rushes in the past. Unfortunately, they almost never had a good quarterback to pair with them. Now they finally got the quarterback right, but the pass rush isn’t up to par. The Bears finished with 35 sacks this season, 6th-worst in the NFL. The New England Patriots, who just got crushed in the Super Bowl, were the 5th-worst. Chicago hasn’t ranked in the top 10 since 2021, the last year they had Khalil Mack.

The Bears face a difficult challenge.

In years past, they both had a high draft pick and lots of salary cap space to potentially address the problem. Now they have neither. The Chicago Bears hold the 25th overall pick in the 1st round, well out of range of where the top pass rushers in a class typically go. They’re also more than $10 million over the salary cap. It isn’t likely they will spend much in free agency. That means they must trust in a mixture of strong evaluation from their scouting department and some good luck to find a true difference-maker.

It’s been done before. Jared Verse went 19th in 2024. George Karlaftis went 30th in 2022. Gregory Rousseau went 30th in 2021. Montez Sweat went 26th in 2019. Good pass rushers slip down the board all the time. The hard part for the Bears is pinpointing who is best equipped to play in the NFL. That has been their Achilles heel. Leonard Floyd turned out pretty good, but not until he left Chicago. Shea McClellin, Michael Haynes, and John Thierry were all busts. Only Tommie Harris was a true hit, and his career was cut short by injuries.