People aren’t sure what to expect from the Chicago Bears this year. Most agree they upgraded at head coach, going from Matt Eberflus to Ben Johnson. Yet after years of expecting better seasons from the franchise, most have approached 2025 with a degree of quiet uncertainty. On paper, they should challenge for a playoff spot. However, that’s been said many times over the past decade, and the end result was always the same. There is no telling that this season will be any different, especially with how stacked their schedule looks.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. At least that is what ESPN analyst Seth Walder thinks. He examined the Bears’ situation with his analytics eye and made a prediction that will shock many.
Bold prediction for 2025: The Bears will rank in the top six in pass block win rate. This is, in part, because I’m buying their offensive line retooling and they have two tackles in Darnell Wright and Jones (assuming he wins the job) who were above average in PBWR in 2023 before falling off in 2024. It doesn’t mean there won’t be sacks — a lot of that is on Williams — but strong blocking will help all facets of the passing game. — Walder
Offensive line play has been a core issue for the Bears since the early 2010s. Outside of one or two seasons, they’ve struggled to consistently protect the quarterback. However, the arrivals of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson along the interior and the hiring of Dan Roushar as offensive line coach have created optimism for the first time.
If true, the Chicago Bears should become competitive immediately.
Pass protection haunted them throughout last season. Yes, some of it came from Caleb Williams’ inability to unload the ball on time, leading to unnecessary sacks. However, the protection was also just bad. One thing about head coach Ben Johnson during his time in Detroit was his ability to mitigate pressure through scheming. Jared Goff was never sacked more than 31 times in any of his three seasons.
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When Williams was sacked twice or fewer times in a game last year, the Bears were 3-2, with him throwing six touchdowns and no interceptions. That is why the Chicago Bears invested so heavily in the offensive line. They knew improved protection would lead to team success. Last season, nine of the ten teams that finished with a top-10 pass-block win rate made the playoffs. This is no small thing if the Bears pull it off.
