A lot of Chicago Bears fans are left wondering about the John Fox Mitch Trubisky dynamic. More than a few aren’t anxious to see that relationship go on long-term. Fox doesn’t have a stellar reputation for developing quarterbacks and most see the drafting of Mitch as a desperation move to save his job, what with two-straight losing seasons.
That’s always a popular theory in NFL lore. Coaches use the timely addition of a young QB to stall for time. Continuity is important after all, right? Well there’s only one way to find out. That being a dive into the history books.
In order to get an accurate barometer of the situation, it was important to focus on the coaches who fit the criteria. What exactly is that? They have to fulfill a couple stipulations. They could not be in their first year of employment with a team and they could not be coming off a winning season. That’s because Fox checks both of those boxes. The idea here is simple. If the Bears still produce a losing season, what is the likelihood that Fox keeps his job? Here is every coach who fits the model since the year 2000.
Dan Reeves
- Drafted Michael Vick in 2001
- Fired during 2003 season
Marty Morninwheg
- Drafted Joey Harrington in 2002
- Fired in 2003
Dick Jauron
- Drafted Rex Grossman in 2003
- Fired in 2004
Dennis Green
- Drafted Matt Leinart in 2006
- Fired in 2007
Josh McDaniels
- Drafted Tim Tebow in 2010
- Fired during 2010 season
Steve Spagnuolo
- Drafted Sam Bradford in 2010
- Fired in 2012
Jack Del Rio
- Drafted Blaine Gabbert in 2011
- Fired during 2011 season
Pat Shurmur
- Drafted Brandon Weeden in 2012
- Fired in 2013
Lovie Smith
- Drafted Jameis Winston in 2015
- Fired in 2016
Ken Whisenhunt
- Drafted Marcus Mariota in 2015
- Fired during 2015 season
Jeff Fisher
- Drafted Jared Goff in 2016
- Fired during 2016 season
For those who need a quick summary, here’s how it broke down. Of the 11 coaches presented, five of them didn’t even make it to the end of that same season the QB was drafted. Another four were fired at the end of the year. That leaves only two, Dan Reeves and Steve Spanuolo, who managed to get an extra year of work. This was greatly aided by the fact both went 7-9 that first year with their respective rookies.
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Reeves was 4-12 the year prior and Spagnuolo was 1-15.
In other words Fox cannot bank at all on Trubisky’s mere presence saving his job. These final 12 games will decide his fate. Spagnuolo and Reeves showed 7-9 was enough to buy them another year. That means the Bears would have to go 6-6 the rest of the way to pull it off. Not impossible but a long way from foreseeable given the teams’ current state.
Much of how this plays out could be determined by what happens Monday night against Minnesota.
