According to Charlie Campbell, senior draft analyst of Walter Football, many around the NFL feel the price will be lower than that. Partly because of Brady and the relative unknowns around Garoppolo himself, but also some other factors in play.
“There has been talk that the New England Patriots are seeking a first-round pick for backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but in surveying teams around the league, they don’t think Garoppolo is worthy of that price tag. One AFC general manager told WalterFootball.com that he thinks Garoppolo is worthy of a third-round pick, but the Patriots could probably get a second-round selection for him. An NFC general manger said he thinks Garoppolo would go for a second-round pick. Another NFC general manager said they thought a third-round pick would be fair.
All of the general managers cited the trades of Alex Smith, Matt Cassel and Matt Schaub. Each member of that trio went for a second-round pick when dealt. All three of those quarterbacks also had more starts and experience than Garoppolo does.”
For a little clarity here is how each of those comparative deals went down:
- Matt Schaub to the Houston Texans. In exchange Falcons get second round picks in 2007 and 2008 while also swapping 10th pick for 8th pick in first round.
- Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs. In exchange 49ers get a second round pick in 2013 and a conditional pick in 2014. That later became another second rounder.
- Matt Cassel to the Kansas City Chiefs. Together with outside linebacker Mike Vrabel they fetched the Patriots a second round pick in 2009.
As stated above the big difference here is that Garoppolo is less experienced than all of those players were. Not to mention the fact his brief audition early in the year ended with an injured shoulder. So it’s difficult to believe the Patriots would be able to get a first round pick in any deal. Even a second rounder might be stretching it.
However, since New England actually spent a second rounder on him in 2014 the odds are they’d like to get a little more in return. So it would likely be a second and another pick in the third to fifth range. Considering some were afraid that it might require the third overall pick for the Bears to get Garoppolo, this is welcoming news.
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Of course there is still the chance another team might be willing to offer up that first rounder, but it’s not likely. Not with what should be a stronger-than-usual free agent class and a decent crop of prospects in the draft. To say nothing of what the poor performance by Brock Osweiler in Houston did for teams seeking to acquire backups from others.
So if Chicago is hoping to preserve their #3 pick for something other than a quarterback, this avenue just became a lot more palatable.
