Let’s get this out of the way: The 2025 Chicago Bears are not the same bumbling circus act we’ve watched for the last decade. Nope. These Bears are 9-3, red-hot, riding a five-game heater, and — get this — currently sitting on top of the NFC. Yeah, read that again. Not tied for second. Not clawing for a Wild Card. Sitting. On. Top.
But before you start planning your January tailgates at Soldier Field, let’s pump the brakes. The road to the NFC’s #1 seed — and that sweet, sweet first-round bye — is real, but it’s steep, narrow, and loaded with a difficult schedule ahead.
Let’s break down the reality of the Bears’ situation. Not the fairytale. Not the clickbait fantasy. Just the cold, hard path to the top.
A Three-Way Knife Fight for the NFC Crown
The NFC playoff picture is about as pretty as a Chicago winter: icy, brutal, and everybody’s fighting for the last warm seat. The Bears, Rams, and Seahawks are all sitting at 9-3, while the Eagles (8-4), Packers (8-3-1), and 49ers (9-4) are just lurking in the weeds.
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Right now, the Bears hold the edge thanks to a better conference record. But we’ve seen how quickly that house of cards can collapse. One loss, and boom — you’re fighting for Wild Card scraps.
Here’s how the top NFC contenders line up:
| Team | Record | Key Remaining Games |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 9-3 | @ GB, vs. CLE, vs. GB, @ SF, vs. DET |
| LA Rams | 9-3 | @ ARI, vs. DET, @ SEA, @ ATL, vs. ARI |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9-3 | @ ATL, vs. IND, vs. LAR, @ CAR, @ SF |
| Philly Eagles | 8-4 | @ LAC, vs. LV, @ WAS, @ BUF, vs. WAS |
| Green Bay Packers | 8-3-1 | vs. CHI, @ DEN, @ CHI, vs. BAL, @ MIN |
| SF 49ers | 9-4 | Bye, vs. TEN, @ IND, vs. CHI, vs. SEA |
| Detroit Lions | 7-5 | vs. DAL, @ LAR, vs. PIT, @ MIN, @ CHI |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 7-5 | vs. NO, vs. ATL, @ CAR, @ MIA, vs. CAR |
If that doesn’t scream chaos, I don’t know what does.
The Bears’ Schedule: A Five-Week Death March
Let’s not sugarcoat this: Chicago’s final five games are brutal. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .590. Only the Seahawks (.597) face a tougher gauntlet.
- Two games against the Packers, who are rolling and smell blood.
- A road trip to San Francisco, which is basically a guaranteed street fight.
- A Lions team in Week 18 that could be desperate for a playoff spot.
There’s no Cardinals or Commanders to pad stats here. Every win will be earned the hard way — with bruises, blood, and probably a missed field goal or two just to keep it spicy.
Meanwhile, the Rams are cruising with the softest schedule among top contenders (.433). They play Arizona twice and get a crack at Atlanta. Seahawks? Also in hell. Eagles? Practically on vacation with a .400 strength of schedule.
So yeah, if the Bears do pull this off, it won’t be because they lucked into it. It’ll be because they earned every damn inch.
What’s Actually Working for Chicago
Okay, time for the good news. The Bears are good. Like, actually good.
This isn’t just smoke and mirrors. The five-game win streak includes a knockout blow to Philly. The offense, led by a finally-unleashed Caleb Williams and a top-five rushing attack, is humming. The defense? Aggressive, violent, and opportunistic.
They’re not winning by accident. They’re imposing their will, hitting harder, and playing smarter.
This is what we’ve been waiting for: a Bears team that doesn’t fold in the fourth quarter or rely on punters to win field position battles. There’s confidence in the building. Swagger, even. And that matters.
The Key Matchups That Will Make or Break It
1. @ Green Bay (Week 14)
You can’t talk about the Bears’ chances without bringing up the boogeyman in Green and Gold. Going to Lambeau with the #1 seed on the line? That’s some horror movie energy.
If the Bears win this one, it not only puts them in the driver’s seat — it psychologically wrecks Green Bay heading into the final stretch. Lose? The Packers leapfrog and possibly control the division.
2. @ San Francisco (Week 17)
Circle this game in blood. The Niners will be rested, mean, and in playoff mode. Winning in Santa Clara is a test of will — and the Bears better bring their lunch pail.
3. vs. Detroit (Week 18)
Could be for the division. Could be for the #1 seed. Could be to keep the Lions out of the postseason entirely. Either way, this one’s going to be a war.
What Needs to Happen (And It’s Not That Crazy)
Let’s do the math. If the Bears go 4-1 to close the year, they finish 13-4. That likely gets them the #1 seed. The Rams would need to win out to match that — possible, but not guaranteed. Same with Seattle.
Key takeaways:
- Beat the Packers twice = double win (your record + their loss)
- Hope the Rams drop one (SEA or DET could do it)
- Hope the Seahawks lose at SF or vs. LAR
- Don’t stub your toe against Cleveland or Detroit
It’s all on the table. It’s not easy. But it’s real.
Final Verdict
This isn’t about some miracle run or hoping the stars align. The Bears are in control of their fate. Win, and they stay on top. Lose, and they’re just another middle-seed hoping to not draw San Fran in the first round.
The margin for error is thinner than Soldier Field sod in December. But this team, for the first time in forever, looks like it belongs in the fight.
So here’s to five more games. Five more shots to prove the league wrong. Five more opportunities to bury the old narrative and maybe — just maybe — get that top seed.
Because if these Bears pull it off? Nobody’s going to want to come to Chicago in January.
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Here’s the other thing to keep in mind. Now that the Bears have the #1 seed in the NFC, one might think that anything less at the end of the season would be a disappointment. That’s not the case. If the Bears make the playoffs, this will have been a spectacularly successful season. If they win the division, even more so. While I’m rooting for them to finish 5-0, I’m not expecting it. They do have a tough schedule, but they have been improving all season, and may be ready for it. The Bears are ahead of schedule on the… Read more »
Looked at the playoff probabilities for various teams on some statistics site. What floored me was that at 9-3, the Bears had a 75% chance of making the post season, while the Packers, behind the Bears at 8-3-1, had a 93% chance of making the post season. Not sure how that’s possible. The two teams have two head to head matchups, which is a wash in terms of probability – if anything, it should favor the team with the better record by a little. The Bears have other games with Cleveland, SF, and Detroit, while the Packers have Denver, Baltimore,… Read more »
If the Bears enter the playoffs, then anything can happen, especially with my hc Ben in charge.
Not to mention, of the 8 teams listed above, Chicago is the only team that has to play the rest of their games (5) outside.
The Bears have/had to play their final 7 games outside. No other team in the NFL had to play this many games outdoors to conclude their season.