Can Bears Wait For A QB In 2017? This Stat Holds A Dark Warning

ROLL THE DICE?

Since the year 2000, the NFL draft has seen four quarterbacks go in the first round of action a total of four times. It’s seen three quarterbacks go six times. That’s out of 17 drafts total. In other words it means there’s a 23.5% chance that the top four quarterbacks will be gone by the time they’re on the clock again in the second round and a 58.8% chance that three of the top options will be gone.

I surveyed 22 teams on who was their top rated QB in Draft – DeShone Watson-9, Mitch Trubisky-8, Pat Mahomes -2 , Undecided-3 @nflnetwork

— Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) March 21, 2017

Given the general agreement that there are four quarterbacks in this class worthy of first round consideration, these are not good odds for the Bears. At best they’d get the fourth option on the board, and likely not the one they were hoping for. This is only made worse by this fact. Three teams ahead of them in the second round (Cleveland, San Francisco, Jacksonville) need QBs too. All may have the same idea of waiting.

TAKE THE FIRST SHOT

Ready for the kicker? Here’s another draft stat to hammer things home. There were 19 quarterbacks selected in the top three slots across that same span. As of today 11 of them have become Pro Bowlers. Based on that, it means the Bears have a 57.8% chance to land a future Pro Bowl quarterback. If they were to take him right away. Maybe not a guarantee, but far better than the odds they face by waiting.

There is no denying the truth. There may be players on the board this April that people would be more comfortable going with. The loose term is “safe” pick. Yet the reality is this. Of the 150 top three picks during the Super Bowl era, 62 were either outright busts or became average journeyman players. There is no such thing as a safe pick in the NFL draft.

So maybe it’s not an unwise policy to spend the most valuable pick they have on the most valuable position in the sport.