Pro Football Focus has been a controversial site for several years. In many ways, the data it collects is incredibly useful for helping football fans better understand the sport. On the other hand, its reputation is hardly what you would call glowing. Many have called the company out for being deeply flawed in its perception of the game, often trying to use math to illustrate impossible situations without proper context. It’s felt for some time that PFF was losing credibility in the eyes of many. That breaking point may have finally arrived, and Caleb Williams was the catalyst.
Sunday was a special one for Chicago Bears fans. Their team put up 59 points on the Carolina Panthers, the highest total by the team’s offense in franchise history. Williams was at the center of it, combining for 334 total yards, 2 passing touchdowns, and 2 rushing touchdowns. He even completed 72% of his passes, which was a hot topic all spring and summer. One would think this got him a pretty good grade from PFF, right?
Nope. His 64.6 offensive grade ranked him 14th among starting quarterbacks in Week 1. The backlash was immediate and virulent. Not just Bears fans but many in the national media were shocked and outraged by the revelation.
PFF didn’t need long to realize it screwed up with Caleb Williams.
While the website has given plenty of shaky takes on their grades over the years, this is the first time it has sparked genuine outrage. So bad that PFF almost immediately put out an article defending its position, insisting the grade was about more than just the box score. Multiple throws by Williams earned negative marks, which affected the grade. People immediately fired back that such an explanation made no sense since several of his “incompletions” were throwaways and his near-interception came on a free play after a Carolina Panthers penalty.
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Even Sam Monson, a former Pro Football Focus employee, raised serious questions about the grade.
It’s just further proof that PFF is trying to gaslight people into thinking there’s so much more intricacy to their grading system. In reality, it reeks of a bunch of dudes trying to whittle nuanced situations down to a single number. That is impossible, since none of them has any clue about the quarterback’s responsibilities on every snap. Other rating systems keep it simple. Completion percentage, TDs, and INTs affect the outcome. No measuring accuracy or other nonsense. This is why Caleb Williams finished #1 in the league with a 94.8 total quarterback rating.
Trust your eyes, not the data.
Numbers lie. They lie all the time. That is because humans manufactured them, and they’re dragged down by personal bias and other subjective factors. In situations like this, you need to trust what your eyes tell you. Almost every single person who watched that game on Sunday came to the same conclusion. Williams was outstanding. He made big plays every time his team needed them and didn’t commit any egregious errors all day. Anybody saying he actually didn’t play well is nitpicking for attention.
If that is PFF’s new model, then be sure to lower your respect for them accordingly. We fans may not spend all day crunching numbers, but we know just as much about what good football looks like as the math nerds. Williams played a great game. He was the primary reason the Bears scored 59 points. It’s fine if you don’t like it, but don’t try to denounce the performance with a nonsensical grading system.
