The Raiders are 1-2. The Bears are 1-2. But if you watched Week 3, you know damn well these teams aren’t in the same galaxy right now. Chicago just walked into Soldier Field and slapped the Cowboys on national TV. Meanwhile, Vegas got embarrassed at home by Marcus Marriota. So yeah, the records match, but momentum tells the real story: the Bears are heating up, and the Raiders are spiraling.
Let’s break down why this Week 4 matchup isn’t just another game — it’s a full-blown momentum collision. And one side’s headed for a crash.
The Bears Finally Found Their Swagger
You could literally see the switch flip for Chicago last week. Caleb Williams finally looked like the No. 1 overall pick we were promised. 298 yards. Four TDs. Zero sacks. And a career-high 142.6 passer rating. All while making the Cowboys’ hyped defense look like they were stuck in molasses.
That wasn’t just a good game. That was a damn announcement.
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Ben Johnson has done what the previous four guys in Chicago couldn’t: build a real offense. The Bears rank 3rd in red zone efficiency at 86% — yeah, top-three in the league. Last season, they couldn’t even spell “red zone” correctly. Now? They’re scoring when it counts.
And don’t even get me started on Rome Odunze. This kid is already playing like a WR1, leading the league with four TD catches. His chemistry with Williams is electric, and it’s not going anywhere.
Raiders: Same Old Crap, New Week
Vegas, on the other hand, is a straight-up mess.
They just gave up 41 points to a back up QB!
Their offensive line is a burning garbage fire. Geno Smith is doing what he can, but when you’re on pace to allow 68 sacks (sound familiar), it doesn’t matter who your quarterback is. The pressure is relentless, and Geno’s paying for it with bruised ribs and a declining passer rating.
Then there’s Ashton Jeanty. Remember all the preseason hype? The 6th overall pick? Yeah, he’s averaging 3.1 yards per carry, and 68% of his runs involve him getting hit at or behind the line. That’s not a running game; that’s a punishment.
When your rookie back has more yards after contact than total rushing yards, you’re not playing football — you’re surviving.
The Data Paints a Bloodbath
Let’s talk numbers. Spoiler alert: it doesn’t get better for the Raiders.
Offensive Firepower:
- Bears: 25.3 PPG
- Raiders: 17.7 PPG
- Total yards? Bears edge it 347 to 320.3
- Red zone? Bears dominate at 86%, Raiders are flailing
Defensive Stats:
- Raiders: 24.7 PPG allowed
- Bears: 31.0 PPG allowed (yeah, it’s bad… but wait)
- Bears have 8 takeaways; Raiders only 4
Third Down Conversions: Dead even at 37.8%, which is… fine. But that only matters if you can get to third down without giving up sacks or botching the play.
Williams vs. Smith: A Tale of Two Offenses
Caleb Williams looks like he’s starting to get it. His Week 3 performance wasn’t just stats padding. He was slinging dimes, moving the pocket, reading defenses, and trusting Odunze like they’ve been playing together for five years.
Geno Smith? Still efficient. Still gutsy. But he’s out there dodging linemen like he’s in a damn obstacle course. Against Washington, he threw for 289 and 3 TDs. Not bad. But the 5 sacks he took tell the real story. He’s playing uphill every snap.
The difference is simple: Caleb’s offense is built around him. Geno’s offense is failing in front of him.
Trench Warfare: One-Sided as Hell
Bears’ O-line just kept the Cowboys defense sackless. And yeah, I know — Dallas’ defense is nothing to brag about. They’re about as intimidating as a kid with a bed sheet cosplaying as a ghost, but the Bears did what they needed to do. But the protection was perfect. Williams had time to make sandwiches back there.
Meanwhile, the Raiders? DJ Glaze and Alex Cappa allowed 13 pressures by themselves last week. The whole damn line allowed 21.
Vegas is getting blown off the ball every snap. And their run game is DOA. They’re averaging 72.3 rush yards per game — which is 30th in the league.
Defensive Clown Show (With a Slight Edge to Vegas)
Let’s not pretend either of these defenses are good. The Bears give up too many points. The Raiders can’t stop the run. Last week, Vegas allowed 201 rushing yards to Washington. That’s a JV stat line.
If there’s a wild card here, it’s turnovers. The Bears generate them (8), the Raiders don’t (4). That’s the kind of margin that flips field position and swings games.
The Matchup That Matters: Momentum
Forget the charts. Forget the rosters. This game comes down to one thing: who the hell wants it more?
Chicago just beat a legit playoff team on the road. Vegas got wrecked by a team that couldn’t decide who their quarterback was.
Ben Johnson has these Bears believing. Pete Carroll looks like he’s still searching for answers that don’t exist on his roster.
Betting Breakdown
Spread: Bears -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Bears -140, Raiders +120
What to Hammer:
- Bears -2.5 feels like a gift. Chicago’s offensive rhythm and Vegas’ protection woes make this spread look too soft.
- Under 45.5 is worth a hard look. The Bears can score, but the Raiders might not hold up their end of the bargain. If Vegas can’t protect Geno, this could turn into a lopsided slog.
- Anytime TD scorer: Rome Odunze. He’s Williams’ go-to guy and leads the league in TD grabs. Bank on another one.
Final Verdict
This game isn’t just a shot at .500. It’s a referendum on where these two franchises are headed. One is building something. The other is patching leaks with chewing gum.
Final Score Prediction: Bears 27, Raiders 17.
