Sunday isn’t just a football game — it’s a therapy session, a grudge match, and a coronation all rolled into one freezing afternoon at Soldier Field.
We’ve got the 11-5 Chicago Bears, a team that transformed from a national punchline into a legitimate Super Bowl dark horse, hosting the 8-8 Detroit Lions, who are currently spiraling down the toilet drain of their own making. It’s Week 18. The No. 2 seed is on the line. And standing on the Chicago sideline, holding the specialized laminated play sheet that Detroit misses like a phantom limb, is Ben Johnson.
Vegas has the Bears as 1.5 to 3-point favorites, but if you look at the roster realities, this feels like it should be double digits.
The narrative here is thick enough to choke on. You have Dan Campbell, the ultimate “football guy” who probably drinks motor oil for hydration, bringing his battered, pride-wounded squad into Chicago to try and ruin the playoff positioning of his former protégé. Meanwhile, the Bears are trying to prove that their offensive revolution isn’t just a fluke — it’s the new world order.
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This is the Ben Johnson Revenge Game. And frankly, it’s about damn time.
The Stakes: Why the No. 2 Seed is Everything
Let’s get the math out of the way so we can talk about the blood feud.
The Bears have already clinched the NFC North. That banner is hanging. But if you think Sunday is a “rest your starters” vibe, you need to check yourself into a facility. A win on Sunday secures the No. 2 seed.
Why does that matter? Because the alternative is a nightmare scenario that I don’t even want to type, but I will for you people.
If the Bears lose and the Eagles handle business against Washington, Chicago drops to the No. 3 seed. The difference between 2 and 3 isn’t just a number — it’s the difference between hosting a likely beatable Green Bay Packers team (who we already beat at home, thank you very much) or staring down the barrel of a Wild Card matchup against the Rams or 49ers.
I don’t care how confident you are — you do not want to see Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay in January if you can avoid it. You want the No. 2 seed. You want a second home game if you win the first. You want the road to the NFC Championship to go through Soldier Field, where the grass is slow, the wind is cruel, and the fans are absolutely feral.
Playoff Scenarios at a Glance:
| Scenario | Resulting Seed | Likely WC Opponent | Vibes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears WIN | No. 2 | Green Bay Packers | Immaculate. Perfection. |
| Bears LOSS (+ PHI Win) | No. 3 | LA Rams / SF 49ers | Nervous sweating |
| Bears LOSS (+ PHI Loss) | No. 2 | Green Bay Packers | Lucky, but we’ll take it |
(Data per NFL Playoff Scenarios)
We need this win. Not just for the standings, but to wash the taste of that 42-38 loss to San Francisco out of our mouths before the real tournament starts. We need to remind the league that Soldier Field is where opposing offenses come to die, not where they come to pad their stats.
The Ben Johnson Factor: From Humiliation to Payback
Rewind to Week 2. Do it. I know it hurts, but we have to acknowledge the scar tissue to appreciate the healing.
Detroit 52, Chicago 21.
It was embarrassing. It was a clown show. Jared Goff threw for 334 yards and 5 touchdowns like he was playing against a high school JV squad. The Bears looked lost, Caleb Williams looked terrified, and the “Fire Everyone” tweets were flying before halftime. Ben Johnson had to stand on the sidelines at Ford Field and watch his old boss, Dan Campbell, effectively stuff him in a locker for three hours.
Campbell didn’t take his foot off the gas, either. He wanted to make a point. He wanted to show the world that Detroit didn’t need Ben Johnson to score points.
Well, look at us now.
Since that disaster, the script has completely flipped. The Lions have imploded. They’re on a three-game skid, their offense looks like a car with three wheels, and they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, Johnson went into the lab, fixed the protection issues, realized his run game was a superpower, and turned the Bears into a top-10 scoring offense (26.6 PPG).
The Tale of Two OCs: Detroit vs. Chicago Since Week 2
EPA/Play Efficiency
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BEARS (Ben Johnson) |███████████████████ 0.155 (Top 3)
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LIONS (John Morton) |████████ 0.067 (Mediocre)
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(Data via Advanced Football Analytics)
Johnson knows Detroit. He knows Aaron Glenn’s defensive tendencies better than Aaron Glenn does. He knows exactly which double moves will twist their secondary into pretzels. And you better believe he remembers the score from Week 2.
He won’t say it in the press conference because he’s a professional. But the play-calling on Sunday? That’s going to be personal. Expect him to run up the score if he gets the chance. He’s going to peel back the curtain on the “good stuff” he’s been saving for the playoffs just to twist the knife a little bit.
Injury Report: Detroit is a Walking MASH Unit
If you’re a Lions fan reading this (why are you here? Go away), look away. This is grim.
The Detroit Lions aren’t just limping into Soldier Field; they’re crawling. Their injury report reads like the casualty list from a medieval siege. We aren’t facing the team that blew us out in Week 2. We are facing the practice squad version of that team.
The “Get Well Soon” List:
| Player | Position | Status | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penei Sewell | RT | OUT | Catastrophic |
| Alim McNeill | DT | OUT | Severe |
| Alex Anzalone | LB | OUT | Severe |
| Taylor Decker | LT | Questionable | High |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Questionable | High |
(Data via Official Team Injury Reports)
Let’s break this down. Penei Sewell is out. He’s arguably the best offensive lineman on the planet. Gone. Alim McNeill, their best interior defender? Gone. Alex Anzalone, the guy who calls the defense and cleans up the mess? Gone.
Without Anzalone, the Lions’ defense drops off a cliff. Per advanced metrics, their defense is -48.6% DVOA without him on the field. That is historically bad. That’s “making the Panthers look like the ’85 Bears” bad. Without McNeill, they have zero interior push. Without Sewell, Jared Goff is going to be running for his life, which — spoiler alert — is not something Jared Goff is good at.
On the flip side, Chicago is relatively healthy. We’ll likely be without Rome Odunze (foot) and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (concussion), but the core is intact.
The Matchup: Bears Offense vs. Lions “Defense”
This is where the game will be won.
Detroit’s defense without McNeill and Anzalone is soft. I said it. They rank 23rd in points allowed with those guys. Without them? They are a turnstile. They are the “Enter” gate at a theme park.
The “Thunder and Lightning” Show The Bears have stumbled into one of the best running back duos in the league, and nobody is talking about it enough.
- D’Andre Swift: 1,047 yards, 4.5 YPC. He’s the home run hitter. He’s the guy who makes you hold your breath every time he touches the ball because he might just house it from 60 yards out.
- Kyle Monangai: The rookie sledgehammer. 769 yards, 5 TDs. He runs like he’s angry at the grass.
Remember Thanksgiving? They combined for 281 yards. Against this Lions front — which just gave up a gazillion yards to Minnesota — Ben Johnson is going to run the ball down their throats until they quit. And they will quit. You can talk about “kneecap biting” all you want, but when you’re 8-8 and watching Kyle Monangai drag your backup linebacker five yards for a first down, the fight drains out of you real quick.
Caleb Williams: The Blitz Killer Here’s the stat that should terrify Detroit. Early in the year, Caleb struggled with pressure. Now? He welcomes it. He invites it in for tea and then destroys it.
According to Next Gen Stats, Caleb Williams has the highest passer rating (136.3) and TD-to-INT ratio (6:0) against the blitz in the entire NFL this season.
Caleb Williams vs. The Blitz (2025)
Passer Rating vs Blitz
-----------------------------------
CALEB WILLIAMS |██████████████ 136.3 (1st)
LEAGUE AVG |███████ 92.0
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TD:INT Ratio
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CALEB WILLIAMS | 6 TDs : 0 INTs
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Think about that. The Lions, desperate to generate pressure without their stars, are going to have to blitz. And Caleb is going to eat them alive. He’s going to spin out of a sack, roll right, and find Luther Burden III (who dropped 138 yards last week and has become an absolute revelation in the slot) for a 20-yard gain.
This isn’t the rookie we saw in September. This is a franchise quarterback who has figured it out.
The Matchup: Lions Offense vs. The Turnover Machine
Let’s talk about Jared Goff.
I like Goff. He’s a solid QB. But take away his protection, take away his running game, and put him outdoors in Chicago in January? He turns into a pumpkin.
The Bears defense allows yards — we know this. We’re 22nd in points allowed. We bend. But holy hell, do we snap back.
Chicago Bears Defense:
- +22 Turnover Differential (1st in NFL)
- 22 Interceptions (1st in NFL)
- 32 Sacks (21st in NFL)
Goff is coming off a game where Minnesota forced six turnovers. Six! His confidence is shot. Now he has to face Montez Sweat and Austin Booker without Penei Sewell blocking for him.
If the Bears get up by 10 points early, this game is over. Goff is not built to chase points in the cold with a backup offensive line. He’s going to force throws. He’s going to get hit. And he’s going to give the ball to Kevin Byardn III and Nahshon Wright.
The X-Factor: Spite
Dan Campbell said it himself: “We got one game to go… I expect everybody to be ready.”
They want to spoil this. They want to drag us down into the mud with them. This is their Super Bowl. Detroit fans are treating this like Game 7 because they have nothing else to live for this season.
But motivation is cheap. Execution costs money.
The Lions are playing on pure emotion. The Bears are playing with precision. Ben Johnson has built a machine that is peaking at the exact right time. Chicago isn’t just winning on “vibes” anymore; they are winning because they have better players, a better scheme, and a quarterback who is ascending to superstardom right before our eyes.
Final Verdict
I’m not going to sugarcoat it — Detroit will come out swinging. They’ll probably score on their opening drive just to annoy us. Campbell will call a fake punt or an onside kick because he has nothing to lose.
But by the second quarter, reality will set in.
The Bears’ offensive line will take over. Swift and Monangai will start ripping off 8-yard chunks. Caleb will catch the Lions in a blitz and burn them deep to DJ Moore. And the Detroit defense, exhausted and depleted, will fold.
Goff will throw two picks. One will be a tipped ball, and one will be a forced throw under pressure from Sweat.
Soldier Field will be rocking. The Bears secure the No. 2 seed. Ben Johnson gets the last laugh. And we head into the playoffs knowing that for the first time in forever, the Chicago Bears are the real deal.
Final Score: Bears 31, Lions 24
Bear Down.
