The Chicago Bears have had a hard enough time trying to battle their opponents through the first two weeks of the season. Unfortunately, they’ve also had to spend that time battling the referees. Through two weeks, Chicago is the third-most penalized team in the NFL. Most will say the Bears need to be more disciplined. Part of that is true, but anybody who has watched those two games can easily make the case that some of those calls were ticky-tack at best. The problem is that it might not get any better on Monday night.
Warren Sharp of Sharp Football is a well-known analytics expert for football data. He came across some information that feels pretty pertinent to the Bears’ upcoming game. According to his findings, the Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated when playing under the watch of head referee Shawn Hochuli and his crew.
“The Jalen Hurts/Nick Sirianni-led Eagles are 6-0 on the moneyline and 3-2-1 ATS in Hochuli-officiated contests. The Eagles have benefitted from a plus-two penalty advantage per game over opponents in those contests.”
You never want to say a game is rigged against you, but that data is hard to ignore. It is pretty clear that Hochuli has shown favoritism towards the Eagles in every game he’s called for them, and they’ve benefited as a result.
The Chicago Bears can’t pull the upset while battling the refs, too.
Last season, when they started 0-2, they committed 20 combined penalties in those games. Their third loss to the Baltimore Ravens saw them commit 10 more. Beating good teams is almost impossible when you’re stuck fighting the yellow flags as well. The Eagles are 2-0. Their pass defense remains one of the NFL’s most formidable. Jalen Hurts is off to one of his better starts. If the Bears want to overcome such a challenge, they cannot under any circumstances give that team extra opportunities.
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| Week / Round | Opponent | Game Result | Final Score | Penalties | Penalty Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs. Minnesota Vikings | Loss (L) | 24 – 27 | 12 | 127 yards |
| Week 2 | @ Detroit Lions | Loss (L) | 21 – 52 | 8 | 50 yards |
| Week 8 | @ Baltimore Ravens | Loss (L) | 16 – 30 | 10 | 85 yards |
| Week 15 | @ Green Bay Packers | Loss (L) | 21 – 28 | 4 | 25 yards |
| Week 18 | @ San Francisco 49ers | Loss (L) | 38 – 42 | 4 | 25 yards |
| Week 19 | vs. Detroit Lions | Loss (L) | 16 – 19 | 4 | 25 yards |
| Divisional Playoff | @ Los Angeles Rams | Loss (L, OT) | 17 – 20 | 3 | 24 yards |
What makes this even tougher is the absence of Caleb Williams. Chicago’s stud quarterback was a big reason the Bears were able to overcome many of their penalty woes last season. His big arm and standout mobility allowed him to recover large chunks of yardage lost to flags. Case Keenum doesn’t have the same toolbox. The offense must do what it hasn’t done yet this season: play efficient football.
There is some good news.
Over the course of last season, the Bears got better at limiting their mistakes. From week three on, they committed 6 or fewer penalties at home in a game 6 times. Not having to deal with extensive crowd noise will be a major benefit. They’ll also have an extra 24 hours to prepare. The Bears were a perfect 3-0 last season in games with an extended wait of 8 days or more. If Sharp is aware of the ref angle, you can safely bet the same is true for head coach Ben Johnson and his staff.
Backup quarterback Case Keenum is a veteran. He’s been around the league for a long time. He knows how to run an operation smoothly. During his last two starts with Houston in 2023, the team avoided excessive pre-snap penalties. That alone would be a major benefit going into this matchup. Hopefully, the refs don’t make their presence known too much. If they do, that data should be forwarded to the league, citing unusual favoritism.
