Remember that whole Bill Barnwell from ESPN debacle where he called Mitch Trubisky the Blake Bortles of the north despite his information being weak in every sense? Well it turns out he’s not the first supposed “expert” to make a run at the Chicago Bears quarterback in that manner. Another east coast name in the form of Michael Salfino of New Jersey went even further in this regard.
Like Barnwell, the man comes with a supposedly strong reputation. He writes for The Athletic, FiveThirtyEight, and The Wall Street Journal. He’s noted for being a fantasy expert, which right away raises a red flag. Why? It means he almost certainly only follows the numbers and doesn’t watch the tape. That’s a problem already.
In his most recent article, he detailed how Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady is no longer a true fantasy go-to guy as he’s been so many times in the past. Nothing overly important to see there, right? That is until he decided to crunch some numbers and pulled Trubisky into the crossfire.
“According to STATS LLC, Tom Brady’s poor-throw percentage of 16.3 is the third-worst of the top 20 QBs ranked by yards. The only ones worse are Mitch Trubisky (19.2 percent), who is basically Tim Tebow 2.0, and Deshaun Watson (16.7 percent). But Watson is fourth in average length of pass and Brady is 22nd. So Brady’s poor-throw rate is actually worse than Watson’s if you adjust for distance.”
Holy lord. Where to begin? Well, let’s start with that hamfisted comparison.
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Mitch Trubisky is miles better a passer than Tim Tebow ever was
No doubt Salfino is referring to Trubisky’s preference to run and his rumored inaccuracy as the basis for the Tebow comparison. The running comparison is fair and perhaps even a compliment in a backhanded way. Tebow was an excellent runner from the QB position and Trubisky is almost over 300 yards through seven games already.
It’s passing the ball where that comparison splits apart. For his career spanning 35 games, Tebow completed 47.9% of his passes. Trubisky has completed 61.6% for his career so far and that’s at 64.6% for this season. He’s not perfect and does have his fundamental flaws, but to say he’s Tebow levels of inaccurate? That’s irresponsible.
Then there’s the stat he so conveniently used to make his point in the first place. For those unfamiliar, STATS LLC is a company that forces people to pay for the privilege of access to their numbers. Few ever use them because it’s expensive. It’s only natural nobody would be able to check Salfino’s work. If they had, they’d realize he intentionally withheld information.
The “length of pass” defense of Watson also applies to Trubisky
Remember from the quote above how Watson’s poor-throw percentage can be explained somewhat by his being 4th in the league in length of pass. That’s just a fancy way of saying intended air yards. NFL Next Gen Stats has that exact category for absolutely free on their website. Watson ranks in almost the exact same spot at 5th with 9.6 yards per throw.
Does anybody know who nipping right there at his heels in the 7th spot? If you said Trubisky, you get a gold star. He’s averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt in intended air yards. Brady was 29th on the list. If one removes the backups who also qualified for the list he’s creeping right up to 24th, close to the same exact spot in the STATS LLC ranking.
In other words, Salfino is playing exactly to the national narrative that Barnwell is. He’s working off the “rumors” that Trubisky is just a running back disguising himself as a quarterback. He didn’t double check to see if his info might be bad, which it is. Hence why his comparison isn’t just weak, it’s laughable.
