Fans have heard from several experts for months about what the Chicago Bears will do with their 1st round pick this year. Everybody has an opinion on that. Could some of them be right? Sure. That’s how this works. It’s a guessing game. So here is an interesting perspective. What does the math say? The concrete data regarding both the prospects involved and the teams?
Cynthia Frelund is the analytics specialist for NFL.com. She put together a mock draft recently that is purely data-driven. The intent is based on one objective. Maximizing a team’s ability to win in 2021. Not the future. This seems to line up perfectly for the Bears. After running through the numbers, which prospect did she end up sending to Chicago? Certainly not somebody a lot of people might’ve expected.
That would be Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome.
“With Kyle Fuller’s departure in free agency, the Bears need to reinforce the back end of the defense. Newsome’s floor is very high — and on this team, with this front, he’ll be impactful in 2021, with his quick learning curve.”
It seems so counterintuitive. How can a team with so many long-standing offensive problems justify taking a defensive player in the 1st round? As always, the board dictates everything. The loss of Kyle Fuller is huge and the Bears secondary is considerably weaker right now than it was last season. Newsome was an outstanding cover corner for Northwestern, which was one of the best defenses in college football in 2020.
He’d be able to step in and play right away with a strong possibility of being a Pro Bowl caliber-starter down the line. Considering the defense is what has carried the Bears to their limited success the past three years, the data actually makes sense here. Better to stick with what you know best. So will the Bears follow this advice? It depends on the 19 picks ahead of them go.
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Chicago Bears seems dead set on helping the offense
The offseason to this point has dictated that thinking. They sacrificed Fuller and Buster Skrine in order to gain cap space. Andy Dalton was signed to improve their quarterback situation. Damien Williams arrived to help at running back. They also made serious runs at signing Trent Williams and Kenny Golladay. It’s evident the Bears are trying to balance out the roster with more firepower on offense.
This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. GM Ryan Pace has run the show since 2015. During that span, the Chicago Bears have never fielded an offense ranked higher than 15th. Head coach Matt Nagy, an offensive guy, has never produced one higher than 21st. One can make a safe bet that is eating at him. He wants to score more points. This is why the odds should favor the 20th pick going to that side of the ball.
Either an offensive tackle or (more likely) a wide receiver.
Don’t forget that Allen Robinson is on the franchise tag. Anthony Miller is on the trade block. It’s possible the Bears could end up with just Darnell Mooney as their primary weapon in the passing game next year. Finding somebody else for Dalton to throw to makes a ton of sense. Of course, that depends on the board. If Newsome is the best available? It wouldn’t be a bad pick at all.
