The famous quote about the real estate business is ‘Location, location, location.’ Could the same be true for acquiring quarterbacks in the NFL? It sounds a little absurd to consider something like that. Yet trends exist for a reason. Is it possible certain parts of the country are just better at producing good QBs than others? This might be a study the Chicago Bears should have an interest in.
ESPN conducted a massive case study recently trying to determine which states produced the highest amount of good quarterbacks and the highest amount of busts or disappointments. There were more than a few surprises. The data was centered around the career success of the players both in terms of stats and Super Bowl accomplishments. Then two lists were compiled. One listing the highest QB rating vs. expectation and the other listing the lowest.
Can you guess who #1 for each was?
The state with the highest rating turned out to be Louisiana. courtesy of a three-headed monster in Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Terry Bradshaw. By contrast, Texas came in as the worst state at producing QBs. Despite being one of the biggest football hotbeds in the country, they have no members in the Hall of Fame. This got me thinking. Does this study apply to the Bears and their ongoing misery at quarterback in any way? So I compiled a shortlist of the most prominent names to play for them, be they 1st round picks or big trade or free agent acquisitions. The results were fairly surprising.
- Mitch Trubisky (Ohio – 2nd worst)
- Jay Cutler (Indiana – 3rd best)
- Rex Grossman (Indiana – 3rd best)
- Cade McNown (Oregon – 9th worst)
- Erik Kramer (California – 4th best)
- Jim Harbaugh (Ohio – 2nd worst)
- Jim McMahon (California – 4th best)
It’s amazing how consistent the data is. Cutler is the franchise leader in most passing categories. Grossman and McMahon remain the only two quarterbacks to lead Chicago to the Super Bowl. Kramer holds the single-season passing record to this day. Trubisky, McNown, and Harbaugh? All former 1st round picks who underachieved during their times with the Bears.
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Can this be applied to the Chicago Bears draft plans?
It isn’t a secret they’re targeting a quarterback. All anybody knows for sure is it will likely happen within the first two days. Everybody has an opinion on who it should be. By the look of things, there are six names that have at least an outside chance of being the Bears’ ultimate choice by the end of the second day. Here is each one with the state they’re listed from.
- Mac Jones (Florida – 5th worst)
- Trey Lance (Minnesota – Not listed)
- Justin Fields (Georgia – Not listed)
- Davis Mills (Georgia – Not listed)
- Kyle Trask (Texas – Worst)
- Kellen Mond (Florida – 5th worst)
Georgia hasn’t produced a lot of NFL quarterbacks. Only six. However, they do seem to have put up some really good names in recent years. Cam Newton in 2011. Deshaun Watson in 2017 and now playoff hero Taylor Heinicke. Minnesota? Well, it’s been a dead zone for quarterbacks. Not one of those who made it to the NFL either made a Pro Bowl or started in a Super Bowl. Former Bear Steve Walsh is a notable one.
This paints a clear enough picture.
If the Chicago Bears are dead set on taking a quarterback, they might be wise to focus their attention on Fields or Mills. Georgia has the hottest hand lately while all of the other quarterbacks come from states that have disappointed more often than not. Given how fruitless their evaluation process was for them over the years, maybe going by state isn’t such a bad idea.