The Deshaun Watson story continues to add layers with each passing day. Incredible to think about considering it started a month ago. The 25-year old quarterback, distrustful of Houston Texans ownership, has wiped team mentions from his social media and formally requested a trade. GM Nick Caserio for his part made it clear from his opening statements that such an idea is not being considered.
Thus the debates have begun. Will the Texans trade him or will they hold him hostage in hopes they can convince the QB to return to the team? Both sides have a lot of supporters in the media. What do NFL people think? Kalyn Kahler of Bleacher Report reached out to several high-level executives around the league and came away with some fascinating information.
One NFL general manager said he hasn’t heard anything from Houston that makes him think Watson will be traded, and he suggested this is mainly a media-driven story.
According to two high-level executives from different teams in the quarterback market, Texans brass have told interested teams that they will not be having any conversations about trading Watson.
So the Texans are mirroring their public message for the time being.
That said, everybody knows things change. That is why teams including the Chicago Bears are making plans to throw offers at Houston in the event Caserio is forced to start entertaining them. What could those offers end up looking like? This is where it becomes problematic for a team like the Bears.
League sources agreed that any deal for Watson would start at three first-round picks and would have to include a young quarterback, preferably one on a rookie deal who can give Houston an answer at quarterback.
The Bears can manage the three 1st round picks. Where it becomes an issue is the young quarterback part. They simply don’t have one. Nick Foles is the only QB on their roster and he turns 32 this year. In this context, teams like the Jets (Sam Darnold), Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), and Broncos (Drew Lock) can make stronger offers. The best hope the Bears would have is if a couple of promising young defenders in the package would suffice rather than a young QB.
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Deshaun Watson may be possible if the Bears do something dangerous
Be willing to wait. Sounds crazy right? It doesn’t make sense without context. So some execs broke it down to Kahler. The situation with Watson is almost a mirror image of what happened between Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals back in 2011. Palmer wanted out. Ownership wasn’t willing to grant his request. So the quarterback chose to sit out. Eventually, the team caved.
Bengals owner and president Mike Brown said he would not trade Palmer, and the Bengals selected quarterback Andy Dalton in the second round of the 2011 draft. Palmer did not report for camp that year, and the Bengals placed him on the reserve/did not report list. The Bengals played Dalton as a rookie and Palmer never officially retired, but he never showed up in Cincinnati.
In October, the Raiders were desperate for a QB and offered a first- and second-round pick for Palmer. The Bengals finally agreed to trade him.
“I look at it as a similar, if you want to call it, staring contest,” the executive said.
Plenty of people believe Deshaun Watson is fully prepared to sit out if he has to. Every sign to this point indicates as much. He’s prepared to play the long game. Houston may decide to sit on him at first but over time may fear the pool of interested teams will dry up because they were forced to move on to alternatives at quarterback.
This is where the big risk comes in for the Bears.
Do they fire their one shot at quarterback elsewhere or do they keep it holstered? Play it cheap with a veteran free agent and maybe a rookie in the 3rd round. Use the other resources to fortify the offense. All the while keeping a close watch on Houston. If they start to waver after the season begins, you could be well-positioned to make a run at Watson then. Incredibly risky but something to consider.
Truth be told that doesn’t feel likely. Not with head coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace fighting for their jobs. If they can’t get a clear answer on Deshaun Watson by the start of the new league year in March? Expect them to shift their focus elsewhere.